Cúcuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pereira: match statistics

Cúcuta Deportivo have the home advantage, winning 36% of their home matches, while Deportivo Pereira have won only 7% of their away games. The hosts average 1.36 goals per home match, compared with just 0.67 for the visitors away from home; Pereira also fail to score in 60% of those games. Chance quality also favours Cúcuta: their home xG stands at 1.11, compared with Pereira’s away xG of 0.81, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.95. Recent results, however, offer little reason for confidence: Cúcuta have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 10 goals, while Pereira have failed to win any and conceded 11. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the visitors have shared the points in 40% of their away games, but their poor finishing tips the prediction in favour of the hosts.

Across the season, Cúcuta average 0.86 goals per match and Pereira 0.67, limiting the chances of both teams finding the net. The visitors’ scoring record is particularly significant: they have failed to score in 60% of their matches, with an average xG of 0.81; the hosts have been kept scoreless in 43% of games. On the other hand, both teams have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches and conceded an average of 2.0 and 2.2 goals respectively during that period, so a Goal/Goal scenario cannot be ruled out. Despite this recent run, their season BTTS rates stand at just 50% for Cúcuta and 40% for Pereira, making it slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

Cúcuta’s last 5 matches averaged 3.2 goals, as did Deportivo Pereira’s; at least 3 goals were scored in 100% and 80% of those matches, respectively. Across the full season, the percentages of matches with at least 2 goals are lower, at 64% and 53%, so the recent run should not be treated as a reliable sign of another high-scoring game. However, both teams have conceded heavily of late—an average of 2.0 and 2.2 goals across their last 5 matches—which increases the likelihood of goals despite their modest season-long attacking averages of 0.86 and 0.67. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.14 xG, while the visitors average 0.81 xG, giving the Over 1.5 goals line more support than the more demanding Over 2.5.

A draw at both half-time and full-time is the most likely outcome: Cúcuta were level at the break in 57% of their matches and drew 43% overall, while Deportivo Pereira finished level in 40%. The opening stages could be tight and low-scoring, with the hosts averaging 0.36 goals before half-time and the visitors 0.33; Cúcuta also kept a clean sheet in the first half in 71% of matches. Although the hosts create more chances, with an average xG of 1.14 compared with their opponents’ 0.81, they have won just 7% of matches, so their edge is not a strong basis for backing them to win. The draw could persist after the break, as the visitors average just 0.33 goals in second halves and the hosts 0.50. The main threat to this prediction is Cúcuta’s weaker defending after half-time, conceding an average of 1.14 goals, which also gives a draw after the hosts lead at the break a noticeable chance in the HT/FT market.