Cuiabá vs Athletic Club: match statistics

Cuiabá remain unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 11 points and conceding just 4 goals, while Athletic Club have lost 3 of their last 5 games and conceded 9 goals. At home, the hosts create significantly more chances: their average xG stands at 1.72 compared with just 0.96 for the visitors away from home, while their average shots on target ratio is 5.08 to 2.58. Cuiabá’s home defence concedes an average of only 0.69 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 46% of fixtures, whereas Athletic Club allow opponents an xG of 1.93 away from home. A draw remains a realistic scenario, as Cuiabá draw 54% of their home matches and Athletic Club draw 50% of their away games, but the hosts’ advantage in game control, with 53% possession compared with 40%, points towards a narrow victory.

The BTTS signal is strengthened by current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Cuiabá’s games and 60% of Athletic Club’s. The hosts averaged 1.6 goals during this period, while Athletic averaged 1.4, with the visitors conceding as many as 1.8 goals per match. Cuiabá should create chances, as its xG across the last five fixtures stands at 1.61, while the opposition allowed opponents an xG of 2.06. Athletic has lower attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.11, but Cuiabá kept a clean sheet in only 31% of its season matches and its xG against is 1.45. Although the hosts’ season-long BTTS rate is only 46%, Athletic’s recent defensive struggles and the improved finishing of both teams slightly support a goal from each side—BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

The season profile clearly limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game: Cuiabá’s matches finished below 3.5 goals in 92% of cases, compared with 83% for Athletic Club. Cuiabá average just 0.92 goals per match and have not scored more than once in any game this season, although the visitors’ weak defense, allowing an average of 1.93 xG, raises their projected total to 1.50 goals. The visitors average 0.96 xG in attack, while Cuiabá have conceded just 0.8 goals per match over their last five games and generated only 1.14 xG against their opponents. Athletic Club’s recent form includes 1.8 goals conceded per match, so a 2-3 goal total remains possible, but the four-goal threshold is too high given the seasonal Over 3.5 rates of just 8% and 17%.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Cuiabá win, as the hosts have been level after 45 minutes in 46% of their matches, compared with as many as 50% for Athletic Club. Both teams tend to play very cautiously in the first half: Cuiabá average 0.46 goals scored during this period and Athletic 0.42, while the average total number of goals is only 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. After the break, the advantage should shift to the hosts, who have averaged 1.2 goals scored in the second half across their last five matches and conceded only 0.6, whereas Athletic conceded 1.4 goals during that period. Cuiabá are also in better recent form, collecting 2.2 points per match in their last five appearances compared with their opponents’ 1.2, without suffering a single defeat in that period. In addition, the hosts create more chances, with an average xG of 1.44 compared with Athletic’s 0.96, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.93, further strengthening the case for a result being decided after half-time.