Cuniburo vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors: match statistics

Cuniburo have won all of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 4, while Deportivo Cuenca Juniors have managed just 1 win and scored 2 goals. At home, the hosts win 57% of their matches and average 1.64 goals, while the visitors win 31% of their away matches and score just 0.69 goals on average. The xG figures highlight the difference in chance quality: Cuniburo average 1.59 at home, compared with Deportivo’s 1.13 away. The hosts concede an average of 0.71 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances, as they fail to score in 54% of their away games. Although Deportivo are higher in the table, current form and results in these conditions point to a Cuniburo win.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: BTTS - Yes occurred in only 21% of Cuniburo’s matches and 23% of Deportivo Cuenca Juniors’ games. The visitors failed to score in 54% of their matches and managed just 2 goals in their last 5, averaging 0.4 per game. Cuniburo kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches and conceded an average of 0.8 goals across their last 5, further limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. The hosts did score 11 goals in their last 5 matches, but that attacking advantage is more conducive to a result in which only one team scores than to both teams getting on the scoresheet. Caution is also warranted given the league average of 1.94 goals per match and a league BTTS rate of 35%.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 93% of Cuniburo matches and 85% of Deportivo Cuenca Juniors matches. The visitors average 0.69 goals and have scored just 2 goals across their last five matches, limiting their contribution to the scoreline. Cuniburo, however, are in better attacking form, having scored 11 goals in their last five matches, which makes the 2.5-goal line less reliable. With an expected total of 2.10 goals, the 3.5-goal line offers greater protection against an effective performance from the hosts while remaining consistent with both teams’ results to date.

Cuniburo have won their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals, while Deportivo Cuenca Juniors have managed just 0.4 goals per game over that span and lost three of their five matches. In the first halves of these games, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while the visitors averaged 0.2 scored and 1.0 conceded; the latter went into half-time trailing on three occasions. Cuniburo to lead at the break is therefore the most likely single scenario, although a half-time draw remains a realistic possibility, as the hosts were level at half-time in three of their last five matches. The case for them to maintain their lead is supported by Cuniburo’s average of 1.4 goals scored after the break in their last five games, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors, as well as the hosts’ higher season xG: 1.34 to 1.13. Therefore, the pick is for the hosts to lead at half-time and win at full-time, with a draw at half-time followed by a Cuniburo win as the main alternative.