Czarni Połaniec vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: match statistics

Czarni Połaniec have won 4 of their 6 league matches so far, while Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have managed just 1 victory in 6 games. In their last five appearances, the hosts have collected 9 points and scored 6 goals, whereas the visitors have picked up 4 points over the same period, conceding as many as 8 goals. At home, Czarni average 1.5 goals per match—three times more than Pogoń-Sokół average away from home, where their figure stands at just 0.5. The Lubaczów side have lost both of their away matches to date, have kept no clean sheets and allow opponents chances worth an average of 2.19 xG. The hosts’ defence is not flawless either, conceding 1.5 goals per home game, but their superior attacking efficiency and significantly better current form point to a home victory.

BTTS - No is the stronger scenario, primarily due to Pogoń-Sokół’s limited finishing efficiency: they average just 0.50 goals per game this season, with an xG of 0.95. The hosts also lack consistent goal-scoring form: they have failed to score in 50% of their matches, while BTTS has occurred in only 20% of their last 5 games. Czarni concede an average of 1.50 goals, but their current xG against them stands at 1.19, which does not provide a particularly strong argument for an away goal. Although both teams have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches, their season BTTS rate of 50% each does not significantly exceed the league average of 52%. The most likely outcome, therefore, remains a scenario in which at least one team fails to score, especially the visitors.

Czarni average 1.25 goals at home, while Pogoń-Sokół score just 0.50 away from home, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential despite the hosts conceding an average of 1.50 goals. The xG model primarily favors the home side: their 1.22 xG, combined with the opponent’s 2.19 xG conceded, points to Czarni scoring around 1–2 goals, while the visitors average 0.95 xG. In the hosts’ last five matches, only 20% went Over 2.5 goals, compared with 40% for the visitors, against a league average of 50%. Furthermore, Under 3.5 goals occurred in 75% of Czarni’s matches and in all of Pogoń-Sokół’s fixtures, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest signal.

The strongest HT/FT option is Czarni Połaniec leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won 60% of their last five games, while Pogoń-Sokół have lost 60%. In this run, the Połaniec side led at half-time in 50% of matches, did not lose any first half, and conceded an average of 0.0 goals before the break, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 75% of their games. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG is 1.22, while opponents allow an average xG of 2.19. Pogoń-Sokół have not won a single match all season and score only 0.5 goals per game, which limits the credibility of a scenario involving a late victory for them. The risk of a turnaround by the visitors remains moderate, as Czarni concede an average of 1.4 goals across their last five matches, but the more likely outcome is that the hosts will preserve their early lead.