DAC vs FK Košice: match statistics

DAC have won all of their last 5 matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding just 2, while FK Košice have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat over the same period. At home, the league leaders win 80% of their matches, score an average of 3.2 goals and concede just 0.4, whereas the visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home. DAC have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their home matches, a significant advantage over FK Košice, who have done so in just 17% of away games. The visitors can still pose a threat: they score an average of 3 goals away from home, and their xG is 1.90 compared with DAC’s 1.81 at home. Despite the visitors’ attacking potential, DAC’s superior finishing and significantly more solid defence point to a home win.

The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by the high frequency of both teams scoring: 57% in DAC matches and 83% in FK Košice matches. The visitors score an average of 3.00 goals per match and have not failed to score in any game, while the hosts average 1.71 goals and have been held scoreless in 14% of their matches. Their attacking potential is reflected in xG figures of 1.76 for DAC and 1.90 for FK Košice, with the visitors conceding an average of 2.33 goals. Caution is warranted, however, as DAC have conceded just 0.4 goals per match across their last five games, and BTTS has landed in only 20% of their matches. Despite this improvement in the hosts' defence, the visitors' consistent scoring and both teams' season-long figures favour the scenario in which each team scores. Be clear that BTTS - No means at least one team fails to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team scores.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 86% of DAC matches and 100% of FK Košice matches. The visitors score an average of 3.0 goals per match, but DAC have conceded just 0.4 goals per game across their last five, so I estimate Košice's goal tally more conservatively at 1.35. The hosts have averaged 2.8 goals recently, while Košice concede 2.33 goals per match this season, supporting a forecast of 1.95 goals for DAC. The expected total of 3.30 goals also points to the Over 2.5 line, but Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge: I assess the probability of it landing at 86%, compared with 65% for the higher line.

DAC have won their last five matches, leading at the break in three of them, so the scenario in which the hosts lead in both halves has the strongest support from their current form. Over this period, DAC scored an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceded 0.2, while FK Košice also scored 1.4 goals but conceded 0.4. The hosts’ advantage after the break is more pronounced: across their last five matches, they scored an average of 1.4 goals compared with 0.6 for the visitors and won the second half five times, while Košice did so only once. The main risk to the 1/1 pick is the visitors’ season-long effectiveness in the first half—they led at the break in four of their six matches—but DAC’s recent results point to any potential lead being maintained until full-time.