Daegu vs Ansan Greeners: match statistics

Daegu are favorites for this match: they have scored 22 goals this season versus Ansan’s 13, and in their last 5 matches Daegu have netted 9 goals compared to just 3 conceded. At home Daegu average 2.0 goals per game, 57% possession, 14.5 shots and 5.67 on target, while Ansan away average 1.5 goals, 43% possession, 9 shots and 4 on target, giving the hosts a clear edge in chance creation. They also show better form: Daegu average 1.6 points per game over the last 5 (record 2-2-1), whereas Ansan average only 0.6 points (record 1-0-4). Defensively Daegu concede 1.67 goals at home with xG against 1.45, while Ansan away nominally concede 1.0 goal with a higher xG against of 2.11, suggesting the visitors allow more high-quality chances. Considering the higher offensive xG (1.8 vs 1.15), superior shooting and possession metrics and the fact Daegu have 0% FTS at home versus Ansan’s 25% FTS away, I predict a home win.

Daegu has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Ansan records 50% seasonally and only 40% in the last 5. The league BTTS sits at 63%, further indicating matches this season often finish with goals at both ends. In the last 5 games Daegu averages 1.8 goals scored with xG 1.95 and concedes 1.0, whereas Ansan recently averages 0.6 goals scored with xG 1.07 and concedes 1.6, so the home side is creating more high-quality chances. Seasonally Daegu at home scores 0.88 and concedes 1.88 (clean sheet expected 0%), while Ansan seasonally has 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded (clean sheets 25%); additionally Ansan has a higher shot conversion rate 17% versus Daegu’s 10%, which gives them a realistic chance to score. Considering Daegu’s high seasonal BTTS (75%), the league 63% and recent xG and goal averages (1.95 and 1.8 for Daegu), I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

Season-long indicators strongly support at least two goals: Daegu has 88% of matches over 1.5 goals, Ansan 75%. A simple model combining offensive xG and xG against yields expected 1.63 goals for Daegu (offensive xG 1.16 vs Ansan xG against 2.11) and 1.40 for Ansan (offensive xG 1.15 vs Daegu xG against 1.65), totaling approximately 3.03 goals. With that total, a Poisson distribution implies probability of Over 1.5 around 81%, Over 2.5 around 58% and Over 3.5 around 36%, which aligns with seasonal trends (Over 2.5: Daegu 63%, Ansan 25%). Additionally, Daegu has averaged 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches (9 in 5), while Ansan 0.6 (3 in 5), so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 as the line to play.

The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and an Ansan win at Full-Time (X/2): Daegu and Ansan both average 0.5 goals by the break, indicating a low-scoring, even first half. Over the season Ansan wins 50% of matches while Daegu has only a 13% home win rate, and the visitors’ shot conversion is 17% versus the hosts’ 10%, so the away side is more efficient at converting chances. Additionally, Daegu conceded six goals in the 76–90 minute window at home, whereas Ansan scored two goals in both the 61–75 and 76–90 intervals on the road, which favors away goals in the second half. Despite Daegu’s better recent form in the last five matches (40% home wins vs 20% for the visitors), the seasonal distribution shows Daegu was trailing at half-time in 50% of their home games, reducing the likelihood of a 1/1 outcome. Therefore I assign the highest probability to X/2, with moderate probability for 2/2 and X/X; given xG of 1.16 for Daegu versus 1.15 for Ansan the first half should be balanced, with efficiency and late goals deciding the outcome.