Daegu vs Suwon: match statistics

I predict a Daegu win — they win 67% of home matches and have a positive home goal differential of +7. At home the hosts average 2.11 goals per game, generate average xG of 1.84 and register 5.89 shots on target per match, while Suwon away average 2.00 goals per game, xG 1.56 and 4.67 shots on target, which supports the superior quality of Daegu’s chance creation. Defensively Daegu concedes 1.33 goals on average at home, have kept a clean sheet in 44% of home fixtures and have had no matches without conceding at home (0% of matches without a goal), whereas Suwon concede 1.67 goals per away game and have yet to record an away clean sheet (0%), giving the hosts an edge in defensive stability. Still, Suwon are in very good attacking form — 15 goals scored in the last 5 matches and unbeaten in that span (3 wins, 2 draws), yielding 2.2 points per game. Considering the higher win rate and better quality of chances for the hosts, I assess the probabilities as: Daegu win 58%, draw 22%, Suwon win 20%.

Both teams strongly indicate BTTS: Daegu has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75%, while Suwon is at 89%, versus a league average of 61%. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 60% of Daegu’s games and 80% of Suwon’s; in that period Daegu scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and Suwon 15 goals (3.0 per match). Both teams also regularly concede — season average goals conceded: Daegu 1.0, Suwon 1.67; in the last 5 matches they conceded 1.0 and 1.4 goals per match respectively. Creation metrics show realistic scoring chances: last 5 matches xG 1.66 for Daegu and 2.09 for Suwon, season xG 1.5 vs 1.56, and average on-target shots 4.13 and 4.67. Additionally Suwon has 0% away clean sheets and the combination of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurs in 78% of their games; therefore I recommend BTTS = Yes.

Data indicate high goal potential: seasonally Daegu scores on average 2.25 goals per match, Suwon 2.00 (combined 4.25), and in the last 5 matches these values were 2.0 and 3.0 (combined 5.0). xG measures are lower — Daegu xG 1.50 and Suwon xG 1.56; accounting for opponent defenses yields approximate xG of 1.37 for the home side and 1.54 for the away side (sum 2.91). Considering both actual goals (4.25 seasonally, 5.0 in the last 5) and xG, I applied weighted averaging and project 1.73 goals for Daegu and 1.71 for Suwon (total 3.44). Over indicators and the percentage of matches in which both teams scored confirm an offensive profile: Over 1.5 occurred in 88% of Daegu matches and 100% of Suwon matches, Over 2.5 in 75% and 89%, and the BTTS rates are 75% and 89% respectively. For these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation); Over 2.5 also has clear chances (~84%), while Over 3.5 is less certain (~45%) due to lower xG and the 3.44-goal projection.

Daegu led at the break in 6 matches (75%) and averages 1.13 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.38, which strongly supports the hosts having the lead after 45 minutes. Suwon, however, were trailing at half-time in 5 fixtures (56%), but in the second half they average 1.33 goals and record a 56% win rate in second halves, with an average of 1.89 points in the second half versus the hosts' 1.38. Both teams frequently score in matches (BTTS: Daegu 75%, Suwon 89%) and the visitors score heavily late on (7 goals in minutes 76–90), which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. In light of these numbers the strongest signal is the scenario of Daegu leading at half-time and a draw at full-time (1/X), which is why it has been assigned the highest probability.