Dalian Huayi vs Changchun Yatai: match statistics

Although Changchun Yatai sit 7th and Dalian Huayi 12th, the teams’ records in their respective home and away roles favour the hosts: Dalian have won 42% of their home matches, while the visitors have lost 58% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded at home, while Changchun score 1.33 and concede as many as 1.83 goals per away game. Dalian also create higher-quality chances, with an xG of 1.32 compared with their opponents’ 1.02 in away matches, and hit the target more often: 3.75 times per game versus 2.67. Over their last five matches, both teams have conceded 6 goals, but the hosts have scored 5 to the visitors’ 4 and collected 8 points to their 7. A draw remains a notable possibility, as half of Dalian’s home matches have ended level; however, Changchun’s poor away defence gives the hosts a slightly greater chance of winning.

Across the season, both teams scored in 58% of Dalian Huayi’s matches and 75% of Changchun Yatai’s, which supports BTTS - Yes. The hosts average 1.75 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.83 and have yet to keep a clean sheet, making a Dalian goal seem likely. Changchun average 1.33 goals, while Dalian concede 1.50; however, the visitors’ chances of scoring are less convincing, as the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches. The last five matches also warrant caution: both teams scored in 40% and 20% of those games, respectively, and the visitors averaged just 0.8 goals. Despite this dip in form, the season-long figures and the visitors’ weak defence give the both-teams-to-score scenario a slight edge.

At least two goals were scored in 83% of Dalian Huayi matches and 92% of Changchun Yatai matches, providing a strong basis for backing Over 1.5 goals. The hosts average 1.75 goals scored and face a side conceding 1.83, while the visitors score 1.33 goals per game against Dalian’s average of 1.50 conceded. The higher line is supported by the seasonal figure of 75% of matches featuring at least three goals for both teams, but this rate has fallen over the last five matches to 40% for the hosts and 20% for the visitors. This decline, along with last-five-match scoring averages of 1.0 and 0.8 goals respectively, weakens the case for Over 2.5 goals. Therefore, with a projected total of 2.55 goals, Over 1.5 goals remains the safest pick, with the probability estimated at 80%.

A draw at half-time is a realistic starting point: both teams were level at the break in 6 of 12 matches, while Changchun Yatai failed to score in the first half in each of their last 5 games. The hosts should have the edge after the break, averaging 1.75 goals per game this season compared with the visitors’ 1.33, and winning 58% of their matches against their opponents’ 25%. Dalian Huayi won the second half in 50% of matches, while Changchun Yatai did so in only 25%, supporting a scenario in which the game is decided after the interval. However, X/1 is not a clear-cut pick: in their last 5 matches, the visitors averaged 0.8 goals after the break, while the hosts averaged just 0.2, so a Dalian win with a lead at the break remains almost equally likely.