Dalian Huayi vs Nanjing City: match statistics

I back the home win because Dalian Huayi holds a clear offensive edge at home: on average 1.67 goals per game and 4.67 shots on target per match versus Nanjing City’s away output of only 0.67 goals and 2.17 shots on target. The hosts also record a higher conversion rate (13% vs 5%) and superior home xG (1.57 vs 1.19 xG for the visitors away), indicating greater efficiency in turning chances into goals. Conversely, the visitors sit higher in the table (8th vs 13th) and show better recent form over the last five matches (1.4 points per game vs 0.8 for Dalian), while their defense concedes 1.00 goal on average away compared to 1.67 conceded by the hosts at home. It is also notable that Nanjing fail to score in 33% of their away matches, whereas the hosts are goalless at home in only 17% of games, and Dalian’s matches average 3.33 total goals, suggesting an open game with a home attacking advantage.

Seasonal BTTS indicators suggest a moderate probability: Dalian Huayi has BTTS 57%, Nanjing City 50%, and the league average is 55%. In the short term the signal is stronger for Goal/Goal — in the last 5 matches the BTTS rate is 60% for Dalian and 80% for Nanjing (average 70%), with both teams scoring 7 goals in those five fixtures. xG and goals-against data also support the likelihood of both teams scoring: home xG is 1.53 versus xG against the visitors 1.44, while away xG is 1.19 versus xG against the home side 1.08 — both sides are creating valuable opportunities. The home defensive form has weakened recently (Dalian conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 per game), while Nanjing conceded 6 goals (1.2 per game); although Dalian has a higher clean sheet percentage on the season (43% vs 17%), recent figures indicate increased susceptibility. In summary, considering the seasonal 57%/50%, the league average 55%, the strong 70% signal from the last 5 matches and xG data, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% versus 28%.

A model combining the team’s attacking xG and opponent xG yields expected xG of 1.49 for Dalian Huayi and 1.13 for Nanjing City, totaling 2.62 expected goals. With this mean of 2.62, a Poisson distribution implies an Over 1.5 probability of approximately 74% (combined probability of 0–1 goals ≈26%), Over 2.5 around 49% and Over 3.5 around 27%. Dalian averages 3.86 shots on target versus 2.17 for the visitors, posts higher xG (1.53 vs 1.19) and a better conversion rate 10% vs 5%; Nanjing concedes 1.44 xG and scores on average 0.67 goals per match. In the last 5 games both teams have scored 7 goals each, Dalian conceded 10, Nanjing 6; season rates show 71%/50% Over 1.5 and 57%/17% Over 2.5 for home/away sides, which explains the line balancing at 2.5. Given the 2.62 expected goals, the home advantage in chance creation and the high share of matches with at least 2 goals, I recommend Over 1.5 as the optimal line to play.

Season-long metrics favor Dalian Huayi: the hosts average 1.43 goals per match versus 0.67 for Nanjing City and win 57% of games compared with just 17% for the visitors. At half-time the hosts also dominate — average goals to the break are 1.0 for Dalian vs 0.5 for Nanjing, 11 first-half goals for the hosts versus 6 for the opponents, and they led at the break in 3 matches (43%). Additionally, xG of 1.53 vs 1.19, an average of 3.86 shots on target vs 2.17 and a higher conversion rate (10% vs 5%) indicate the hosts are more likely to create and finish chances. Full-time figures likewise favour Dalian (57% wins vs 17% for the visitors), although in the last 5 matches the hosts have only a 20% win rate versus 40% for the visitors, which raises the risk of a draw or a turnaround. On this basis the safest scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1), therefore that outcome carries the highest probability.