Dalian Huayi vs Nantong Zhiyun: match statistics

Nantong Zhiyun sit 4th and remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins, 3 draws and a goal difference of 11:4, while Dalian Huayi have collected just 5 points over the same period. However, the home side’s advantage is tempered by the highly draw-oriented profile of their home matches: as many as 60% have ended level, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The visitors are particularly difficult to beat away from home, having lost just 10% of their away fixtures and conceding an average of 0.8 goals, but at the same time, as many as 80% of their away games have ended in draws. Dalian create slightly more chances at home, averaging 1.38 xG and 3.7 shots on target per match, compared with Nantong’s 1.35 xG and 3.3 shots on target away from home. The difference in league position and current form slightly favour the visitors, but their low away scoring rate of 0.7 goals per match makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: in their last 5 matches, both Dalian Huayi and Nantong Zhiyun recorded BTTS in 80% of games. During this period, Nantong averaged 2.2 goals per match, with an xG of 1.83, while Dalian conceded an average of 1.6 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.34. The home side should also find the net, as they average 2.0 goals at home, have not recorded a single match without scoring, and produce 3.78 shots on target per game. The risks to this pick are Dalian’s 56% clean-sheet rate and Nantong’s weaker seasonal away average of 0.7 goals, but the visitors’ current attacking form suggests they can break through that barrier. Therefore, the scenario in which both teams score holds a slight but justified edge over BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

Dalian Huayi average 2.00 goals at home, but Nantong Zhiyun concede only 0.80 goals per away match, which limits the hosts’ attacking potential. The xG model points to a moderate outlook: Dalian’s 1.49 xG in attack is matched against Nantong’s 1.35 xG conceded, while the visitors average 1.35 xG with just 0.93 xG allowed by Dalian. The case for Under 3.5 is particularly strong based on the season data, as fewer than four goals were scored in 67% of the hosts’ matches and as many as 90% of Nantong’s games. The visitors have also seen at least three goals in only 20% of their matches, compared with the league average of 54%, while their away scoring average of 0.70 goals supports a controlled outcome. The teams’ last five matches produced goals more frequently, but the projected 2.50 goals still clearly supports the Under 3.5 selection.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Dalian Huayi win, as Nantong Zhiyun were level at the break in 7 of their last 10 matches, while the hosts have recorded the same outcome in 44% of their games. Dalian nevertheless hold a clear advantage over the full season: they win 89% of their matches, score an average of 2.0 goals and concede just 0.67, whereas Nantong average only 0.7 goals per game. The hosts have looked particularly strong after the break, winning the second half in 78% of cases and scoring an average of 1.11 goals in that period, compared with just 0.20 goals scored by the visitors. Some caution is warranted due to Nantong’s current form: they are unbeaten in their last five matches and have averaged 2.2 goals across those games. However, Dalian’s weaker record during this spell does not outweigh the hosts’ qualitative advantage on home soil.