Dalian Huayi vs Shanghai Jiading: match statistics

Dalian Huayi are in clearly better current form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, with 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, while Shanghai Jiading have managed 5 points. At home, the hosts average 1.73 goals from 11.82 shots per match, whereas the visitors score only 1.00 goal away from home and fail to find the net in as many as 40% of such fixtures. Dalian also create slightly better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.41 compared with 1.08 for Shanghai Jiading, although the visitors concede just 0.90 goals per away match. A draw remains a realistic outcome, with as many as 55% of Dalian’s home matches ending level; however, the visitors’ recent attacking struggles, with just 4 goals in their last five matches, tilt the prediction in favour of the hosts.

Dalian Huayi have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches this season, with that figure rising to 80% over their last five games, during which they scored 7 and conceded 7 goals. The hosts average 1.42 goals scored and 1.58 conceded, while Shanghai Jiading score 1.00 goal per match, providing a solid basis for a Goal/Goal scenario. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches, while the team have failed to score in as many as 40% of games, so the pick is not clear-cut. At the same time, Dalian have allowed opponents an average of 1.36 xG over their last five fixtures, while Shanghai have conceded 1.2 goals per match and 1.27 xG. The balance of signals is only slightly positive, but the hosts' vulnerable defence and their high recent BTTS frequency marginally support a scenario in which both teams score. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The model expects 2.30 goals, including 1.25 for Dalian Huayi and 1.05 for Shanghai Jiading, which clearly favors a total below four goals. Shanghai Jiading concede an average of only 0.90 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 40% of their games, despite Dalian averaging 1.42 goals at home. The visitors have not exceeded the 3.5-goal line in any match this season, while this has occurred in 67% of the hosts’ games. In their last five matches, Shanghai Jiading scored just 0.8 goals per game, with an average xG of 0.96, limiting the chances of an open game. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the data for both teams point more towards a range of 1-3 goals than four or more.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Dalian Huayi win, as Shanghai Jiading have drawn the first half in all of their last five matches and have not led after 45 minutes in any of them. Dalian also tend to start cautiously, drawing at half-time in 50% of their matches, but over the last five rounds they led at the break in 40% of games, averaging 0.8 goals scored before half-time. After the break, the hosts have greater attacking potential: they score an average of 0.83 goals, compared with just 0.50 for the visitors. Dalian’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with their xG standing at 1.32, while the opposition defence allows an average of 1.47 xG. Shanghai Jiading concede just 0.90 goals per match on average, so a final draw remains a realistic alternative; however, the visitors’ weaker recent form—1.0 point per match compared with Dalian’s 1.6—shifts the forecast towards the hosts after half-time.