Dalian Huayi vs Suzhou Dongwu: match statistics

Dalian Huayi holds a clear advantage in chance creation and conversion: at home they average 13.43 shots and 4.43 on target per match with an xG of 1.56 and 1.71 goals per match, while Suzhou Dongwu on the road average 6.71 shots, 2.86 on target, with xG 0.92 and 0.71 goals per match. The hosts are far less likely to be kept off the scoresheet (14% of home matches) and record 29% clean sheets, whereas the visitors have no clean sheets on the road (0%) and fail to score in 43% of away games. Form and recent records also favor Dalian: the hosts average 1.2 points in their last 5 matches versus 0.4 points for Suzhou, and the home goal difference is +2 compared to the visitors’ -4 in away fixtures. Dalian’s high share of home draws (57%) increases the probability of a split, but the pronounced superiority in xG (1.56 vs 0.92), shot volume (13.43 vs 6.71) and much lower rate of matches without scoring (14% vs 43%) supports a bet on the home win.

Season and last-5 form point to a clear BTTS scenario: season BTTS at 50% for Dalian and 57% for Suzhou, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 60% vs 80%. Both sides show defensive vulnerability — Dalian concedes 1.63 goals/match on the season and 2.2 in the last 5; Suzhou concedes 1.29 on the season and 2.2 in the last 5 — indicating high chance volumes. xG indicates the hosts create 1.54 xG per match with an actual 0.75 goals, while the visitors produce 0.92 xG with 0.71 goals, so both teams are generating chances; additionally Suzhou has 0% CS this season. Dalian averages 11.25 shots and 3.0 on target, Suzhou 6.71 and 2.86, with conversion rates of 7% vs 11%, which raises the likelihood of a goal despite the visitors’ lower shot count. Considering last 5 matches (goals: Dalian 9 scored, 11 conceded; Suzhou 6 scored, 11 conceded) and league-wide BTTS level at 52%, BTTS - Yes is the strongest signal.

Using the home attack’s average xG of 1.54 and the visitors’ average xG conceded of 1.41, expected goals for Dalian are about 1.48. Similarly, Suzhou’s attacking xG of 0.92 versus Dalian’s conceded xG of 1.66 yields roughly 1.29 for the away side, giving a combined total of ~2.77 goals. Seasonally Dalian have 63% of matches Over 2.5, Suzhou 29%, and both teams show high rates Over 1.5 – 63% and 57% respectively, which strongly favors Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches both teams generated substantial xG (1.55 and 1.58) and Over 2.5 occurred in 60% of the home team’s games and 80% of the away team’s games, boosting the probability of Over 2.5, although Over 3.5 is seasonally rare (25% and 14%). Considering the calculated combined xG ~2.77, the high Over 1.5 percentages (63%/57%) and average shots 11.25 vs 6.71 with conversion ~7% / 11%, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 remains moderately likely, while Over 3.5 has a low chance.

The strongest signal comes from half-time data: Dalian Huayi led at the break in only 13% of matches and trailed at the break in 63% of games, while Suzhou Dongwu led at the break in 29% of matches, so HT most often favors the visitors. Goal statistics confirm this home instability — Dalian concedes on average 0.88 goals by half-time versus 0.29 conceded by Suzhou, and despite a higher xG for Dalian (1.54 vs 0.92) their shot conversion is lower (7% vs 11%), meaning fewer goals from more chances. At full-time the hosts lose 63% of their home matches, and although they average 3.0 shots on target vs 2.86 for the visitors, the low conversion limits their ability to produce a turnaround. Additionally, in the last five matches Dalian have a 40% win rate (2 of 5) versus 0% for Suzhou, which gives some, but weaker, chance of a comeback after the break; therefore the strongest and most consistent scenario I select is 2/2 (visitors leading at half-time and winning at full-time).