Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

Dalian Zhixing have a clear advantage in chance creation at home: on average 16.25 shots and 4.75 on target per match, with 1.75 goals scored and xG 1.68. Chongqing Tongliang Long produce only 5.33 shots (2 on target) on the road, have xG 0.61 and score 1.0 goal on average, but concede only 0.33 goals per game and record 67% clean sheets. Both teams are in excellent form – Dalian (3rd) have won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 2.4 points in that run, while Chongqing (2nd) have 4 wins and 1 draw with an average of 2.6 points. The key contrast is chance volume (home xG 1.68 and 16.25 shots vs away xG 0.61 and 5.33 shots) and the visitors’ efficiency (19% conversion rate on the road), which points to an even, rather low-scoring encounter. Considering Dalian’s superiority in creating chances and Chongqing’s compact defence, I predict a narrow home win (1).

I favour the Both Teams To Score (BTTS: Yes) scenario because home side Dalian average 1.8 goals per game (14 goals this season) with an xG of 1.29, which is nearly equal to Chongqing’s conceded xG of 1.31 — meaning Dalian create as many chances as the visitors typically allow. Chongqing concede only 0.33 goals per game season-to-date and have 67% clean sheets, but in their last 5 matches the visitors scored 8 and conceded 3 (avg. 1.6 and 0.6) and registered BTTS in 60% of those five games, indicating an uptick in fixtures with both teams scoring. Dalian themselves have a season BTTS rate of 60% and in their last 5 matches scored 9 and conceded 5 (1.8 and 1.0), while the home side’s higher shot and on-target shot volume (11.0 and 4.4 vs visitors’ 5.33 and 2.0) increases the likelihood Chongqing will concede. Against this speaks Chongqing’s low season average xG of 0.61 and their season BTTS rate of only 33%, but recent xG (last 5: 1.62 for Dalian vs 0.95 for Chongqing) and form (Dalian 4W-0D-1L, Chongqing 4W-1D-0L) point more toward a game with goals at both ends. Therefore I assign 65% probability to ‘yes’ and 35% to ‘no’ — a choice justified by Dalian’s 60% season BTTS, 60% BTTS for both teams in their last 5 matches, and the home side’s offensive advantage shown in xG and shot metrics.

Considering xG and form: Dalian has xG_for 1.29 (last 5 matches 1.62) while Chongqing xG_for 0.61 (last 5 matches 0.95); accounting for xG_against (Chongqing xG_against 1.31, Dalian xG_against 0.88) I averaged the forecast to 1.32 goals for the home side and 0.91 for the away side, totaling 2.23 goals. Dalian scores on average 1.8 goals per game, records 11.0 shots and 4.4 on target and has 80% of matches over 1.5 goals this season; Chongqing attempts 5.33 shots, has 0.61 xG per game, concedes on average 0.33 goals and keeps 67% clean sheets. With an expected total of 2.23 goals, a Poisson distribution gives roughly a 65% chance for Over 1.5, about 39% for Over 2.5 and around 19% for Over 3.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 due to the home advantage in shots/xG (11.0 and 1.29 vs 5.33 and 0.61) and Dalian’s seasonal 80% Over 1.5 rate, while Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 carry only moderate and low probabilities (approx. 39% and 19%).

I predict a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1). A draw at the break is common for both teams — the hosts were level at half-time in 60% of matches, and the visitors in 67%, with the visitors keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 100% of games, so HT=X has a strong basis. In the second half Dalian holds the advantage: they average 1.6 goals after the break and 1.2 goals scored in the second half compared to 0.67 and 0.33 for Chongqing, and the hosts have scored 3 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 0 for their opponents, indicating a late turnaround. Additionally Dalian produces more high-quality shots — on average 4.4 shots on target and 1.29 xG per match versus 2.0 shots on target and 0.61 xG for Chongqing — which increases the likelihood that after a half-time draw the hosts will win.