Dayrout vs Ismaily SC: match statistics

Ismaily SC are favourites, as Dayrout have failed to win any of their 6 league matches and have not scored a single goal, while the visitors have netted 7. At home, Dayrout have lost all 3 games, conceding an average of 2.33 goals, and have let in 11 goals in total across their last 5 matches. The visitors average 1.67 goals and 4.33 shots on target per away game, compared with 2.33 shots on target for the hosts at home. The difference in chance quality is reflected in xG: Ismaily average 1.80 away from home, while Dayrout manage just 0.54 at home. However, a draw cannot be ruled out, as Ismaily concede an average of 1.67 goals away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road.

The strongest evidence against BTTS - Yes is Dayrout’s form: the hosts have failed to score in their last 5 matches, averaging just 0.5 xG. Over the same period, they conceded an average of 2.2 goals, giving Ismaily SC, who scored an average of 1.2 goals, a considerably better chance of finding the net. However, the case for both teams to score is supported by Ismaily SC conceding an average of 1.6 goals recently, with both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches. Even so, Dayrout’s season average of 0.67 goals scored and their run of 5 consecutive matches without scoring make it more likely that the hosts will fail to find the net. BTTS - No means at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 result.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: all matches played by both teams so far have featured at least two goals. Dayrout concede an average of 2.0 goals per match and have conceded 11 goals in their last five games, which favours a more clinical away side. Ismaily average 1.67 goals and 4.33 shots on target per match, compared with Dayrout’s 0.67 goals and 2.0 shots on target. The 2.5 and 3.5 goal lines are less compelling: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Dayrout’s matches and 67% of Ismaily’s, while Over 3.5 goals has landed in just 33% of matches for each side. Therefore, with a goals projection of 2.45, I’m opting for Over 1.5, although the absence of odds means the bet’s value cannot be assessed.

Dayrout were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches and failed to score before the break in all of them, making a draw after 45 minutes slightly more likely than an away lead. Ismaily averaged 0.6 goals in first halves during this period, so their advantage may not translate into an early lead. After the break, Dayrout have conceded an average of 2.0 goals recently and lost the second half in 4 of their 5 matches. Across the season, Ismaily average 1.67 goals per match compared with Dayrout’s 0.67, which points to an away win at full-time. The strongest HT/FT pick is therefore a draw at half-time and an Ismaily win at full-time, although this outcome has only a slight edge over the visitors leading at the break and winning the match.