De Graafschap vs Cambuur: match statistics

De Graafschap has a home advantage: in home matches they average 2.06 goals and generate xG 2.28 per game, while Cambuur away averages 1.78 goals and xG 1.58. The hosts create significantly more chances — 20.39 average shots and 8.33 shots on target at home versus 13.28 shots and 5.39 on target for Cambuur away — although the visitors are more efficient (13% conversion vs 10% for the hosts). In the last five matches De Graafschap scored 13 goals and averages 1.6 points per game, whereas Cambuur scored 9 goals, averages 1.0 points per game and conceded as many as 11 goals (De Graafschap conceded 7). On the other hand Cambuur’s season-long record is stronger: 22 wins vs 17, 72 goals scored vs 71, and only 44 conceded vs 56 for De Graafschap, which indicates greater defensive stability over the long term. Considering De Graafschap’s superiority in chance creation and superior recent form, I forecast a home win; estimated probabilities: 50% for 1, 25% for draw, 25% for away win.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are strong: De Graafschap has 67% of matches with both teams scoring, Cambuur 61%, and the league average is 62%, providing a baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. Both teams regularly score and concede — De Graafschap averages 2.22 goals for and concedes 1.11 per match, Cambuur scores 1.78 and concedes 1.33, and clean sheets occur in only 33% and 28% of matches respectively. In the last 5 matches the trend is even stronger for BTTS: Cambuur has 80% BTTS and concedes 2.2 goals on average, De Graafschap has 60% BTTS and concedes 1.4, indicating a high likelihood of mutual scoring in current form. Additionally, xG and shots metrics confirm chance creation — xG_for 1.89 vs 1.58 and xG_against 1.31 vs 1.45, plus average shots on target 6.5 vs 5.39 with conversion 14% vs 13%, so both sides have realistic goal-scoring potential. Considering seasonal 67/61% BTTS, Cambuur’s recent 80% and the league average of 3.21 goals per game, I assess BTTS probability at 72% (No 28%) and recommend a "yes" bet.

De Graafschap averages 2.22 goals scored per match, Cambuur 1.78, and the league average is 3.21 goals per game, indicating a generally high-scoring environment. xG values corroborate the offensive bias: De Graafschap’s attacking xG is 1.89 versus Cambuur’s 1.58, with xG against at 1.31 (De Graafschap) and 1.45 (Cambuur); from these figures I estimate 1.67 goals for the home side and 1.45 for the visitors (total 3.12). Seasonally Over 1.5 occurred in 83% of home matches and 72% of away matches, so Over 1.5 gives the strongest signal (≈85%); Over 2.5 is 56%/56% season-to-date and De Graafschap have had Over 2.5 in 80% of their last 5 games, yielding a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (≈58%). Over 3.5 is less likely: season rates are 44% for De Graafschap and 33% for Cambuur, and only 17% of matches saw either team score 3+ goals, so I assess Under 3.5 at roughly 65%.

De Graafschap holds an offensive advantage: on average 2.22 goals per match versus Cambuur's 1.78, xG 1.89 vs 1.58 and 6.5 shots on target vs 5.39, indicating superior chance creation. The hosts are also stronger after the break — they score on average 1.39 goals in the second half versus Cambuur's 0.83 and have accumulated 37 points in second halves compared to the visitors' 26 points, which supports maintaining or extending a lead. Although season-long first-half averages show Cambuur scores slightly more (0.94 vs 0.83), in the last five matches De Graafschap led at the break in 60% (3 of 5) while Cambuur did so in only 20% (1 of 5); the hosts also scored 7 goals in the 0–15 minute window versus Cambuur's 2, increasing the likelihood of a lead at the break. Full-time statistics also favor the hosts — De Graafschap win 67% of home matches versus Cambuur's 56% away win rate, with shot conversion rates of 14% vs 13%, so the most reliable scenario is 1/1 (lead at half-time and home win at full-time).