Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: match statistics
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Defensor Sporting played Cerro in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 3 August 2026. Venue: Estadio Luis Franzini. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Defensor Sporting: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Cerro: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Defensor Sporting scores 0.81 and concedes 0.90 goals per match. Cerro scores 0.62 and concedes 1.52. League average: 2.37 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Defensor Sporting 52%, Cerro 38%. Over 2.5: Defensor Sporting 24%, Cerro 33%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Defensor Sporting has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.30. Defensor Sporting: 12.1 shots per match, Cerro: 11.2.
Match halves
Defensor Sporting: half-time lead 5%, second-half goals 0.43. Cerro: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.29.
Goals by minute
Defensor Sporting: 31-45+ (4 goals). Cerro: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.37 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-2. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back 1: Defensor Sporting as the home side holds a clear advantage in home metrics — they concede only 0.78 goals per home game on average and have kept a clean sheet in 44% of home matches, whereas Cerro concedes 2.5 goals per away match on average and has no away clean sheets. Offensively Defensor averages 1.0 goal per home game with an average xG of 1.77 and 4.56 shots on target, while Cerro produces just 0.6 goals away with xG 1.36 and 3.1 shots on target. Additionally Defensor posts higher possession (55% vs 44%), better conversion rate (approx. 7% vs 5%) and a lower FTS rate (22% vs Cerro’s 50% away), indicating greater control and more efficient chance conversion. Recent form is mixed: Defensor scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches and failed to win any (0W,3D,2L) with PPG 0.6, while Cerro have 2 wins in their last 5 and PPG 1.2, but that improvement does not offset the visitors’ poor defensive record away. Given the hosts’ dominant defense and the high away loss rate for Cerro, I assess the probability of a Defensor Sporting win at 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes because both teams generate similar xG above 1.2 (Defensor xG 1.29, Cerro xG 1.36), indicating realistic chances for each side to score. Cerro concedes on average 2.5 goals per match and has 0% clean sheets this season, significantly increasing the likelihood the hosts will find the net, even though Defensor scores only 0.6 goals seasonally and has 30% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Defensor had 60% BTTS (3 scored, 6 conceded), and Cerro 40% BTTS (4 scored, 8 conceded), so recent form also favors goal exchanges. Additionally the league BTTS rate is 52%, and both teams average 10.4 and 12.5 shots with conversion rates of 6% and 5%, confirming chances are being created. Considering the away side’s defensive issues (2.5 conceded), xG signals and recent form, I assign the 'Yes' scenario a 62% probability versus 38% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis yields expected goals: Defensor Sporting’s attacking xG is 1.29 and Cerro’s defensive xG is 1.71, averaging roughly 1.50 goals for the home side; likewise Cerro’s attacking xG 1.36 and Defensor’s defensive xG 1.23 give about 1.30 goals for the away side, total ≈2.80. In season stats Defensor scores 0.6 and concedes 0.7 goals per match, while Cerro scores 0.6 and concedes as many as 2.5 (32 goals conceded this season), indicating high vulnerability in Cerro’s defense. Additionally Cerro has 90% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, versus only 30% for Defensor; in the last 5 matches the combined xG of both teams is approx. 3.04 (1.62 + 1.42), which favors exceeding 1.5 goals. On the other hand low shot conversion (6.0% Defensor, 5.0% Cerro) and moderate shots on target (3.8 and 3.1) explain why Defensor has 0% of matches over 2.5 this season and limit the strength of the signal for Over 2.5/3.5. Consequently I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the safest and strongest option: estimated probabilities Over 1.5 ≈72%, Over 2.5 ≈58% and Over 3.5 ≈28%, with expected goals 1.50 (Defensor) and 1.30 (Cerro), total 2.80.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First half: Defensor drew at the break in 90% of matches this season and in the last 5 games had a draw at half-time in 100% of cases; the home side’s average goals at the break is only 0.2, which strongly supports a draw (X) in HT. Despite the draw at half-time, full-time statistics favor Defensor — Cerro loses 80% of matches and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game, while Defensor has a 30% home win rate and averages 1.2 points per match. Meanwhile xG values show the visitors with xG_for 1.36 and xG_against 1.71, and the hosts with xG_for 1.29 and xG_against 1.23, meaning Cerro’s defense is more prone to conceding. As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at the break and a home turnaround to win the match (X/1), so I assigned the highest weight to this scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Defensor Sporting | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Cerro is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Defensor Sporting · 1.8 pts / match - Cerro
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Defensor Sporting is 31% better for: goals scored per match.
0.81 goals / match - Defensor Sporting · 0.62 goals / match - Cerro
Defensor Sporting is 69% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.9 goals / match - Defensor Sporting · 1.52 goals / match - Cerro
Defensor Sporting scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 19% (4 of 21 matches).
Cerro scores in 57% of matches (12 of 21 matches), while Defensor Sporting keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Defensor Sporting
Over / Under — Cerro
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Defensor Sporting - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 5% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Defensor Sporting | Liga | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.71 | 2.37 | ▼ 2.14 |
| Both teams scored | • 52% | 51% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 45% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 69% | ▼ 52% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 62% | 71% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Defensor Sporting 2 - 0 - 2 Cerro. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
The Primera División match finished Defensor Sporting 2:1 Cerro. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Defensor Sporting and Cerro?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Defensor Sporting won 2, Cerro won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
Defensor Sporting score 0.81 goals per game on average and Cerro 0.62. The Primera División average is 2.37 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Defensor Sporting's matches and 38% of Cerro's.
What form are Defensor Sporting and Cerro in?
Over the last 5 games Defensor Sporting have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Cerro 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.