Dekani vs Bilje: match statistics

Dekani have the edge in attack and efficiency at home: they score an average of 1.55 goals per home match with a conversion rate of 17% and 3.27 shots on target, while Bilje score only 0.73 goals away with an 8% conversion and 3.18 shots on target. Defensively the gap is even larger — Dekani concede 1.45 goals at home, whereas Bilje concede as many as 2.64 goals away, i.e. 1.19 goals more per game; Bilje also record only 9% clean sheets compared to the hosts' 27%. xG metrics are similar in attack (Dekani xG 1.28 vs Bilje xG 1.20), but Bilje allow a higher opponent xG (1.68 vs Dekani 1.26), confirming their vulnerability to dangerous situations. The last 5 matches yield both teams 1.4 points per game, however Dekani’s home stats (home win rate 45%, home goal difference +1) versus Bilje’s poor away form (away win rate 18%, goal difference -21) favor the hosts. Considering better conversion (17% vs 8%), a lower share of matches without scoring (27% vs 36%) and Bilje’s significantly worse away defence, I expect a Dekani win.

Statistics point against BTTS: Dekani concedes only 0.67 goals per match season-to-date and has kept a clean sheet in 42% of games, while Bilje scores just 0.73 goals per match with a low shot conversion of 8%. Dekani generates xG 1.37 and averages 4.73 shots on target from 11.0 shots per game, whereas Bilje concedes opponents’ xG of 1.68 and concedes 2.64 goals season-to-date, giving the hosts a clear chance to score. On the other hand, Bilje has only 9% clean sheets and a season BTTS of 55%, but in the last 5 matches both teams scored in only 20% of games, indicating a downturn in mutual scoring. Summing up: superior chance creation from Dekani (xG 1.37, 4.73 SoT) versus Bilje’s poor finishing (0.73 goals with xG 1.2 and 8% conversion) and the hosts’ high clean sheet rate (42%) make the ‘No’/No Goal scenario more likely.

I calculated expected goals as the average of the home team's attacking xG and the opponent's defensive xG: Dekani (1.37 + 1.68)/2 = 1.53, Bilje (1.20 + 1.27)/2 = 1.24, total ≈ 2.77 goals. Dekani averages 11.0 shots (4.73 on target) with a conversion rate of 10%, while Bilje concedes 2.64 goals per game this season and has an xG against of 1.68, indicating a vulnerable away defense. Match stats confirm a tendency for goals: Dekani has 75% of games over 0.5 and 50% over 1.5, Bilje has 100% over 0.5 and 73% over 1.5, while over 2.5 occurred for them in 25% and 55% of cases respectively. A Poisson model for the total expected goals ≈2.77 yields approximate probabilities of over 1.5 ≈ 76%, over 2.5 ≈ 52% and over 3.5 ≈ 30%, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Dekani are clearly stronger this season: they average 1.00 goals scored and concede 0.67 per match, whereas Bilje average 0.73 scored and 2.64 conceded; the home side have a 42% home win rate versus the visitors’ 18%. Matches are often level at the break — Dekani are level at half-time in 50% of fixtures, Bilje in 45%, and in Bilje’s last five matches they were level at half-time in 100% of cases, so HT X is a likely scenario. In the second half the statistics favor the hosts: Dekani average 0.92 goals after the break and have won 42% of such matches, while Bilje average only 0.45 goals after the break and have a negative second-half goal difference of -12. Dekani’s superior xG (1.37 versus Bilje’s 1.20) and the hosts’ 42% clean sheet rate suggest that a half-time draw will more often turn into a narrow home win, hence the selection HT X / FT 1.