Den Bosch vs Dordrecht: match statistics

Den Bosch have a clear home advantage: they have won 50% of their home matches, while Dordrecht have yet to win away and have lost 75% of their away games. The hosts average 2.25 goals at home with an xG of 2.06, while the visitors score just 1 goal per away match with an xG of 1.60, pointing to greater finishing efficiency from Den Bosch. The defensive numbers also highlight the gap: Dordrecht concede an average of 3.25 goals away from home, compared with 2 goals conceded by Den Bosch at home. Both teams are in poor form, having each won just 1 of their last 5 matches, but Dordrecht have conceded as many as 19 goals during that run, against 11 for Den Bosch. The high number of goals conceded by both sides gives the visitors a chance to find the net, but the home and away records point to a Den Bosch win.

Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Den Bosch concede an average of 2.5 goals, while Dordrecht concede 3.25, so both defences give their opponents plenty of chances to score. The hosts score an average of 2.0 goals, with an xG of 1.61; the visitors score just 1.0 goal, but create chances worth an average of 1.60 xG. In their last five matches, Dordrecht averaged 1.6 goals and saw BTTS - Yes land in 80% of games, although Den Bosch scored only 0.8 goals per match over the same period. The hosts' drop in scoring form limits confidence in the prediction, but with Dordrecht conceding an average of 3.8 goals recently, a scenario in which both teams score remains more likely.

Den Bosch matches average 4.5 goals, while Dordrecht matches average 4.25; the two teams concede 2.5 and 3.25 goals per match, respectively. In their last five appearances, Dordrecht conceded an average of 3.8 goals, while Den Bosch created chances worth 1.79 xG per match, increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring multiple times. The visitors also have attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.6, and Den Bosch have kept no clean sheets in the matches analysed. Over 1.5 goals landed in 75% of Den Bosch matches and 100% of Dordrecht matches, making this the strongest signal, although the data also support the higher Over 2.5 goals line.

The most likely outcome is Den Bosch leading at the break and holding on to that lead until the final whistle, although the home side’s advantage is not beyond doubt. Season data shows they score an average of 1.25 goals before half-time, compared with Dordrecht’s 0.75, while in their last five matches the visitors conceded an average of 2 first-half goals and did not lead at half-time once. The case for a home win is also supported by their average of 2 goals scored per match, compared with Dordrecht’s 1, and by the fact that the visitors lost 3 of the 4 matches included in the season statistics. After the break, Dordrecht conceded an average of 1.75 goals and lost the second half in all 4 of those matches, increasing the likelihood of Den Bosch holding on to their lead. Caution is still warranted, however: the hosts led at the break in only 1 of those 4 matches, so a draw at half-time followed by a late Den Bosch win remains a significant alternative in the HT/FT market.