Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
The match promises to be extremely balanced. Deportes Tolima presents solid home form with a 67% win rate (2 victories in 3 matches) and a favorable goal difference of +2 at their own stadium. However, Atlético Nacional has better overall form in the last 5 matches (2.4 PPG vs 1.4) and an impressive record of 5 victories in 6 season matches. A key factor is the visitors' weak away form—only 50% wins away and 0% clean sheets, suggesting defensive vulnerability. xG statistics are close (1.76 vs 1.41 for the visitors), and both teams have a similar average possession (61% vs 60%). Given the hosts' advantage on their own turf and the instability of Atlético Nacional in away matches, combined with the high quality of the visitors, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a minimal victory for one of the sides.
Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Deportes Tolima played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 2 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Deportes Tolima: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Deportes Tolima scores 1.25 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 2.50 and concedes 0.67. League average: 2.62 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Deportes Tolima 38%, Atlético Nacional 50%. Over 2.5: Deportes Tolima 38%, Atlético Nacional 83%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.33. Deportes Tolima: 12.3 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 17.5.
Match halves
Deportes Tolima: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.50. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.67.
Goals by minute
Deportes Tolima: 0-15 (2 goals). Atlético Nacional: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.62 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be extremely balanced. Deportes Tolima presents solid home form with a 67% win rate (2 victories in 3 matches) and a favorable goal difference of +2 at their own stadium. However, Atlético Nacional has better overall form in the last 5 matches (2.4 PPG vs 1.4) and an impressive record of 5 victories in 6 season matches. A key factor is the visitors' weak away form—only 50% wins away and 0% clean sheets, suggesting defensive vulnerability. xG statistics are close (1.76 vs 1.41 for the visitors), and both teams have a similar average possession (61% vs 60%). Given the hosts' advantage on their own turf and the instability of Atlético Nacional in away matches, combined with the high quality of the visitors, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a minimal victory for one of the sides.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Deportes Tolima | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Deportes Tolima · 2.4 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 100% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - Deportes Tolima · 2.5 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Deportes Tolima · 0.67 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Deportes Tolima scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Deportes Tolima keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Deportes Tolima
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / match - Deportes Tolima · 1.83 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Deportes Tolima - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 83%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Deportes Tolima
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Deportes Tolima | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.13 | 2.62 | ▲ 3.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 60% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 54% | ▲ 83% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 25% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 38% | 67% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 63% | 79% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Deportes Tolima 0 - 1 - 1 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Deportes Tolima 1:0 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Tolima and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 0, Atlético Nacional won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional?
Deportes Tolima score 1.25 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 2.50. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.62 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Deportes Tolima's matches and 50% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Deportes Tolima and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Deportes Tolima have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Deportes Tolima vs Atlético Nacional: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.