Deportes Tolima vs Cúcuta Deportivo: match statistics

Deportes Tolima have a clear home advantage: they have won 63% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.63 goals and conceding just 0.81. Cúcuta Deportivo have won only 7% of their away matches, while their defence allows opponents an average of 2.14 goals and an xG of 1.83. The hosts create more high-quality chances, as reflected by their average xG of 1.66 compared with 1.18 for the visitors, and they also register 15.5 shots per match versus Cúcuta’s 10.5. Tolima’s recent form has been weaker, with 1 win and 3 defeats in their last five matches, but Cúcuta have scored only 4 goals during that period, so their improved results are not based on clinical finishing. A controlled home win is expected, although a draw remains a realistic outcome given Cúcuta’s 36% away draw rate.

Seasonal BTTS rates stand at 64% for Deportes Tolima and 57% for Cúcuta Deportivo, meaning both teams play matches with a goal for each side more often than not. Tolima have failed to score in only 9% of their matches, while Cúcuta’s defence has kept a clean sheet in just 14%, conceding an average of 2.14 goals per game—strongly supporting a home goal. The visitors score an average of 0.93 goals, but register 3.86 shots on target per match and generate an average of 1.18 xG, while Tolima allow opponents 1.59 xG. Caution is warranted due to Cúcuta’s last five matches, in which BTTS landed in only 40% of cases; however, Tolima’s higher xG over that period, at 1.75, compared with the 1.76 xG conceded on average by the visitors, slightly tilts the prediction towards both teams scoring.

Deportes Tolima average 1.27 goals at home, while Cúcuta Deportivo concede as many as 2.14 goals away from home, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. At the same time, Cúcuta score only 0.93 goals per away match, and the two teams have scored just 4 goals combined in their last five fixtures. In their last five matches, the visitors have not recorded a single game with at least 3 goals, while their average number of goals conceded was only 0.8. Over the season, Tolima’s matches finished below 3.5 goals in 73% of cases, compared with 57% for Cúcuta, and neither team has scored more than 3 goals in a match. The projected total of 2.60 goals points to a realistic chance of a 2:0, 2:1 or 1:1 result, making Under 3.5 the clearest value pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportes Tolima win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 50% for Cúcuta. Tolima concede only 0.45 goals per match before half-time, while Cúcuta concede an average of 1.00, limiting the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. Over the full season, the hosts average 1.27 goals scored, while Cúcuta’s opponents allow themselves to concede as many as 2.14 goals per match; Tolima also average 1.45 points per game, compared with 0.57 for the visitors. After the interval, Cúcuta score just 0.36 goals and concede 1.14 on average, increasing the likelihood of the hosts breaking the deadlock. The visitors’ stronger recent form, with 1.6 points per game over their last five appearances compared with Tolima’s 0.8, reduces confidence in the 1/1 pick, but supports a cautious half-time draw more than an eventual away win.