Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pereira: match statistics

Deportes Tolima is the clear favorite: at home they score on average 2.0 goals and concede 0.75 per match, have a +10 home goal difference and win 75% of home games. Deportivo Pereira away average just 0.75 goals scored and concede 2.0, have a -10 away goal difference and 0% away wins. Tolima creates significantly more chances (avg. 16.5 shots and 5.63 on target per match) and has a higher xG (1.73) than Pereira (avg. 7.25 shots, 2.88 on target, xG 0.76), and also superior possession (64% vs 42%). In the last 5 matches Tolima scored 7 and conceded 7 (1W, 2D, 2L, avg. 1 point per game), while Pereira scored 4 and conceded 7 (0 wins in five, avg. 0.4 points per game), indicating the visitors’ inferior form. Considering the advantage in shot efficiency, xG, possession and better home defense (clean sheets 38% vs 0% and lower percentage of matches without scoring 13% vs 50%), I predict a home win.

Deportes Tolima scores on average 1.0 goal per match this season (24 scored) with xG 1.19, while Deportivo Pereira concedes on average 2.0 goals per match (29 conceded) and has 0% clean sheets, which strongly increases the hosts' likelihood to score. Pereira, however, averages 0.75 goals per match and xG 0.76 this season, and in the last 5 matches their xG_for is 1.11 with 4 goals scored (0.8 per match), whereas Tolima in the last 5 scored 7 and conceded 7 (1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded), suggesting open games. Shot stats show Tolima's advantage: 11.5 shots and 4.38 on target per match versus Pereira's 7.25 and 2.88 (conversion 9% vs 10%), and the league BTTS level is 56% with season splits 50%/50% for both teams. Considering Pereira's 0% clean sheets, Tolima's 60% BTTS in the last 5 and Pereira's high goals conceded rate (2.0), I assess the BTTS chance higher and estimate probability at 62% vs 38%, therefore I recommend the

Combining Tolima’s attacking xG (1.19) with Pereira’s defensive xG conceded (1.89) the model projects ≈1.54 expected goals for the home side; likewise 0.76 attacking xG for Pereira and 1.56 defensive xG for Tolima yield ≈1.16 for the away team, totalling ≈2.70 goals. Tolima averages 11.5 shots (4.38 on target) and 1.0 goal per match, Pereira 7.25 shots (2.88 on target) and 0.75 goals while conceding on average 2.0 goals — this elevates the likelihood of goals. Seasonal indicators show Over 1.5 at 63% for both teams, and a Poisson with mean=2.70 gives P(>1.5)=1−P0(≈0.067)−P1(≈0.181)≈0.75, which confirms a strong signal for Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line Poisson returns ≈50.6% (rounded to 51%), and for 3.5 ≈28.6%, so Over 2.5 is only a moderate pick and Over 3.5 has low probability. Based on these figures I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the safest and most strongly justified line.

The home side creates more high-quality chances: xG_for 1.19 vs 0.76 and on average 11.5 shots per match compared to 7.25 for the visitors, and over the last 5 fixtures Tolima averages 1.4 goals vs Pereira’s 0.8. The first half, however, is typically balanced and low-scoring — the hosts average only 0.25 goals by the break, the visitors 0.38, and Tolima draws at half-time in 50% of matches versus 13% for Pereira. After the break Tolima is more effective: in the last 5 games they score 1.0 goal in the second half versus Pereira’s 0.6 and accumulate 1.6 points in second halves vs 1.0 for the visitors, which supports the likelihood of a turnaround. Additionally, Pereira concedes on average 2.0 goals per match this season compared to 1.63 for Tolima, which strengthens the case for a home win at full-time; therefore I assign the highest probability to the scenario of a draw at half-time and a Tolima victory at full-time (X/1).