Deportes Tolima vs La Equidad: match statistics

Deportes Tolima are clearly stronger at home, winning 69% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.69 goals and conceding just 0.69 per game. La Equidad win only 18% of their away matches, while their defence concedes an average of 2.18 goals, with just 9% of matches ending with a clean sheet. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.61 compared with 1.26 for the visitors, while averaging 15.23 shots per match against 12.09 for their opponents. Current form also favours Tolima, who have scored 7 goals and collected 10 points in their last five appearances, whereas La Equidad have conceded as many as 12 goals during that period. With an average possession advantage of 59% to 40%, the hosts should be able to control the match and secure the win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 55% of Deportes Tolima matches and as many as 73% of La Equidad games, compared with the league average of 53%. Tolima score an average of 1.55 goals, while La Equidad concede as many as 2.18 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 9% of their games, which strongly supports a home goal. The visitors average 1.00 goal scored, but their latest xG stands at 1.70 against 1.27 xG conceded by Tolima, so they have solid reasons to find the net. In the last five matches, BTTS landed in 80% of Tolima games and 60% of La Equidad games, while the visitors’ defence allowed 12 goals during this period, or 2.4 per match. Tolima can keep a clean sheet in 27% of matches, so the risk of a No Goal scenario for the visitors remains significant; however, the overall data still points to BTTS - Yes.

Tolima average 1.55 goals per match, while La Equidad concede as many as 2.18, with the visitors allowing opponents 2.4 goals per game across their last five matches. The hosts create chances consistently, recording an xG of 1.52 and 5.45 shots on target per match, while La Equidad’s defense allows an average xG of 1.58. The 1.5 line has been surpassed in 73% of Tolima’s matches and in as many as 91% of La Equidad’s games, which is a significantly stronger signal than at higher thresholds. Additionally, across the teams’ last five appearances, 7 of 10 matches produced at least three goals in total. Over 1.5 therefore offers the greatest edge: even with a limited contribution from the visitors, Tolima’s attack and the opponent’s recent defensive weakness should lead to at least two goals.

Deportes Tolima have a clear advantage over the course of the match: they score an average of 1.55 goals, while La Equidad concede as many as 2.18, and the hosts also record a higher xG figure, 1.52 compared with 1.26. The strongest argument in favour of a Tolima win is the second half, in which they score an average of 1.00 goal and collect an average of 1.82 points per match, whereas the visitors score just 0.36 goals and have not won any match in this period. A draw at half-time remains a realistic possibility, as Tolima were level after 45 minutes in 73% of their matches; however, in their last five appearances, they were already leading at the break in 40% of games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. La Equidad have conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, including as many as 1.8 after the break, which favours the hosts holding on to any potential lead. The 1/1 scenario is therefore the most likely: Tolima possess greater attacking quality, registering 5.45 shots on target per match compared with their opponents’ 4.00, and they are facing a highly vulnerable visiting defence.