Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a closely matched contest with a slight edge towards a draw scenario. Deportes Tolima exhibits solid home form with a 50% win rate at their ground, yet their poor recent form (only 1 win in their last 5 matches) raises concerns. Once Caldas remains undefeated this season, boasting an impressive unbeaten run, and their 67% draw rate on the road confirms defensive stability. The hosts have an advantage in ball possession (63% vs 49%) and a higher xG in home matches (1.56 vs 1.21 for the visitors away). However, Once Caldas has not lost a single away match yet and always scores (0% FTS%). Considering the visitors' consistent draw-based form and the hosts' recent struggles to secure wins, the most probable outcome is a share of the points.
Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Deportes Tolima played Once Caldas in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 15 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Deportes Tolima: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Once Caldas: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Deportes Tolima scores 1.00 and concedes 0.50 goals per match. Once Caldas scores 1.33 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Deportes Tolima 17%, Once Caldas 100%. Over 2.5: Deportes Tolima 17%, Once Caldas 33%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Once Caldas has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.03. Deportes Tolima: 9.0 shots per match, Once Caldas: 14.7.
Match halves
Deportes Tolima: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.33. Once Caldas: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Deportes Tolima: 16-30 (2 goals). Once Caldas: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a closely matched contest with a slight edge towards a draw scenario. Deportes Tolima exhibits solid home form with a 50% win rate at their ground, yet their poor recent form (only 1 win in their last 5 matches) raises concerns. Once Caldas remains undefeated this season, boasting an impressive unbeaten run, and their 67% draw rate on the road confirms defensive stability. The hosts have an advantage in ball possession (63% vs 49%) and a higher xG in home matches (1.56 vs 1.21 for the visitors away). However, Once Caldas has not lost a single away match yet and always scores (0% FTS%). Considering the visitors' consistent draw-based form and the hosts' recent struggles to secure wins, the most probable outcome is a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Deportes Tolima | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Once Caldas is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Deportes Tolima · 1.4 pts / match - Once Caldas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Once Caldas is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Deportes Tolima · 1.33 goals / match - Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.5 goals / match - Deportes Tolima · 1 goals / match - Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while Once Caldas keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Once Caldas scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Deportes Tolima keeps a clean sheet in 67% (4 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Deportes Tolima
Over / Under - Once Caldas
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Deportes Tolima is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Deportes Tolima · 1.17 pts / match - Once Caldas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Deportes Tolima - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Once Caldas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Deportes Tolima | Liga | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.50 | 2.42 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 17% | 58% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 17% | 46% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 67% | 26% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 33% | 64% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 75% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Deportes Tolima 2 - 0 - 0 Once Caldas. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Deportes Tolima 2:1 Once Caldas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Tolima and Once Caldas?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 2, Once Caldas won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
Deportes Tolima score 1.00 goals per game on average and Once Caldas 1.33. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 17% of Deportes Tolima's matches and 100% of Once Caldas's.
What form are Deportes Tolima and Once Caldas in?
Over the last 5 games Deportes Tolima have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Once Caldas 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?
The statistical background for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.