Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club Bilbao: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). Alavés averages 1.31 goals at home and has an xG of 1.47 with 51% possession, while Athletic on the road scores just 0.94 goals on average and has a shot conversion rate of around 7% versus the home side’s 10%. Defensively Alavés concedes 1.19 goals at home, whereas Athletic concedes 1.81 goals away and records as many as 44% of away matches without scoring, compared to 19% of home matches in which Alavés failed to score. In the last 5 matches Alavés has scored 12 goals and collects 1.6 points per game, while Athletic has 6 goals and 1.2 points per game, which confirms the home side’s superiority in efficiency and form. Based on this I estimate probabilities: 60% home win, 25% draw and 15% away win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates around half: Alavés 53% and Athletic 50%, while the league BTTS average is 56%, providing a slightly pro-BTTS background. In the last 5 matches Alavés has 100% BTTS, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, whereas Athletic has 60% BTTS with averages of 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded, so Alavés is more responsible for driving matches to Goal/Goal results. xG stats show Alavés generates 1.66 xG against an Athletic defense allowing 1.32 xG, and Athletic posts 1.48 xG against an Alavés defense allowing 0.97 xG, which suggests scoring opportunities on both sides. For the season Alavés has scored 38 and conceded 49, Athletic has 36 scored and 48 conceded, and clean sheets are rare: Alavés 24% and Athletic 13%, reducing the likelihood of a No Goal outcome. Considering Alavés’ 100% BTTS in the last 5, comparable season rates of 53%/50%, supportive xG signals and low clean sheet percentages, I assign 72% to BTTS - Yes and 28% to No Goal as the most justified forecast.

Calculated expected goals based on xG are approximately 1.49 for Alavés and 1.23 for Athletic — I computed this as the average of home attack xG 1.66 and away defensive xG 1.32 for Alavés, and away attack xG 1.48 and home defensive xG 0.97 for Athletic; the sum is ~2.72. Alavés’ form in the last 5 matches is very high-scoring: they average 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with 100% of those 5 fixtures finishing Over 2.5 and all featuring Both Teams To Score; Athletic in their last 5 average 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded with 60% Over 2.5 and 60% BTTS. This season Alavés have 59% of matches Over 1.5 and 47% Over 2.5, while Athletic have 88% Over 1.5 and 50% Over 2.5, indicating that a scenario with at least two goals is more likely than a very low-scoring game. Additionally, the xG total of 2.72 is close to the league average of 2.69, so xG data and recent form corroborate each other. Based on this I recommend an Over 2.5 goals bet as the strongest signal (probability around 62%), with a very high probability of Over 1.5 (~92%) and a low probability of Over 3.5 (~28%).

Half-time statistics suggest a draw: the home side were tied at the break in 41% of matches, while the visitors were tied at half-time in 50%, with the home team keeping a clean sheet at the break in 71% of games, so HT often is 0-0 or a draw. Over the full match Alavés is the clear favorite — home win percentage is 53% versus 19% for Athletic, and the seasonal points average is 1.71 for the hosts vs 0.75 for the visitors. The hosts’ advantage is confirmed by xG: Alavés xG is 1.66 versus 1.48 for the visitors, with xG against 0.97 vs 1.32, indicating more high-quality chances and better defense. Moreover, the hosts perform better in second halves: in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.8 points in the second half versus 0.8 for Athletic and scored an average of 0.65 goals in the second half vs 0.5 for their opponents, so the scenario of a draw at HT and a home win at FT (X/1) is assessed as the strongest.