Deportivo Alavés vs CA Osasuna: match statistics

Alavés has a clear advantage in possession and shot volume: at home they average 12.71 shots and 4.07 on target with 51% possession, while Osasuna away average 9.13 shots and 2.33 on target with 43% possession. This translates into goals — Alavés score 1.21 goals per home game with xG 1.43 and a conversion rate of 10%, whereas Osasuna score only 0.6 goals away with xG 1.05 and roughly 7% conversion. The efficiency gap is underscored by the share of matches without a goal: Alavés failed to score in 21% of their home games, while Osasuna were goalless in 67% of their away matches. However, the hosts’ defense has vulnerabilities — Alavés conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game), while Osasuna conceded 7 in their last 5 (1.4 per game), suggesting a risk of goals from both sides. Considering Alavés’ xG advantage (1.43 vs 1.05), higher shot volume and the low share of goalless home games, I tip an Alavés win and estimate probabilities of 60% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 15% for the away side.

I back BTTS - Yes: Alavés posts a season BTTS rate of 64% and as high as 80% in the last 5 matches, while Osasuna, despite a season 33%, records 60% BTTS in their last 5. Alavés averages 1.79 goals per game this season (xG 1.59), registers 5.14 shots on target and generates significant chance creation, whereas Osasuna away concedes an average 1.63 xG and only 2.33 shots on target, factors that favor a home goal. Despite Osasuna’s low season goals average (0.6), in the last 5 games they averaged 1.2 goals and xG 1.69, and Alavés in that period conceded 2.2 goals on average (11 conceded), so the visitors also have a realistic chance to score. Additionally, La Liga’s BTTS is 56% with an average 2.7 goals per game, Alavés keep a clean sheet in 36% of matches while Osasuna away only 13%, all of which increases the probability of both teams scoring in this fixture.

I project approximately 1.61 goals for Alavés and 1.17 for Osasuna, totaling 2.78 goals. This is based on xG: Alavés xG for 1.59 vs Osasuna xG against 1.63 (avg ~1.61) and Osasuna xG for 1.05 vs Alavés xG against 1.29 (avg ~1.17); the 2.78 total is slightly above the league average of 2.7. Alavés averages 14.14 shots and 5.14 on target with a 13% conversion, while Osasuna averages 9.13 shots, 2.33 on target and a 7% conversion, favoring the home side for goal-scoring. Season metrics show Alavés exceeded 1.5 goals in 86% of matches and Osasuna in 47%, and the total-goals distribution model (with an expected 2.78 goals) gives ~77% probability for Over 1.5, ~53% for Over 2.5 and ~30% for Over 3.5. For these reasons the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5.

Alavés led at the break in 9 of their matches so far (64%), scoring on average 1.0 goals by half-time compared to Osasuna’s 0.2, which clearly favors the home side on HT. Over full matches Alavés wins 57% of games while Osasuna wins only 13%, with average goals of 1.79 for Alavés versus 0.60 for the visitors, supporting a final victory for the hosts. Creation statistics confirm this advantage: xG 1.59 vs 1.05, 5.14 shots on target per match vs 2.33 and conversion rates of 13% vs 7%, so Alavés converts chances into goals more often. The hosts also score on average 0.79 goals in the second half and have HTPPG 2.21 versus Osasuna’s 1.20, suggesting that when leading at the break they will maintain the lead — therefore 1/1 is the strongest signal.