Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Petrolera: match statistics

Deportivo Cali are the favourites: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 2, while Alianza Petrolera have recorded 3 wins and conceded 7 goals. At home, the hosts average 1.47 goals scored and 0.60 conceded, while the visitors score 0.71 and concede 1.71 goals per away match. Deportivo’s advantage is also reflected in chance quality: their home xG stands at 1.54, compared with Alianza’s away xG of 1.06; Alianza also allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.43 xG. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 53% of their home matches, while the visitors fail to score in 57% of their away games. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Deportivo have shared the points in 40% of their home matches, but the overall record of both teams clearly favours a home win.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is that Alianza Petrolera failed to score in 57% of its matches, with a season average of just 0.71 goals. Deportivo Cali kept a clean sheet in 31% of its matches and conceded just 2 goals in its last five, an average of 0.4 per game. The hosts are more likely to find the net: they averaged 1.8 goals across their last five matches, while the visitors conceded 1.4. The risk to the BTTS - No pick is Alianza’s xG of 1.06 and the fact that Deportivo has recently allowed chances worth an average of 1.91 xG. However, the visitors’ poor finishing supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 75% of Deportivo Cali’s matches and 86% of Alianza Petrolera’s games. Both teams have scored relatively few goals this season—0.88 and 0.71 per match, respectively—although the visitors’ average of 1.71 goals conceded gives the hosts a chance to find the net. In their last five matches, Deportivo averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded only 0.4, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring game. Alianza failed to score in 57% of its matches, so despite an average xG of 1.06, it is difficult to expect a major contribution from the visitors to the total goals. The forecast of 2.46 goals points to a clearer edge for Under 3.5 than for the riskier Under 2.5 goals.

Deportivo Cali have led at the break in each of their last five matches, averaging 1.0 first-half goals scored and none conceded; Alianza Petrolera have conceded an average of 1.0 goal before half-time over the same period. The hosts have won four of their last five games and scored an average of 1.8 goals per match, while the visitors have conceded 1.4. The second-half figures for the season also support them holding on to their lead: Alianza concede an average of 0.93 goals in the second half, compared with 0.69 for Deportivo. Although the hosts have led at half-time in only 25% of their matches across the season, their markedly stronger recent form makes a Half-Time/Full-Time home win the strongest scenario.