Deportivo Cali vs La Equidad: match statistics

Deportivo Cali are significantly stronger at home, where they win 55% of their matches, concede just 0.55 goals per game, and keep a clean sheet in 55% of their appearances. La Equidad lose 50% of their away matches, score an average of 1.00 goal, while also allowing opponents 2.17 goals per game. The hosts create more high-quality chances, as confirmed by an xG of 1.52 compared with the visitors’ 1.29, while Cali’s defense records a significantly lower xG against: 0.92 versus La Equidad’s 1.58. Current form also favors the hosts, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded just 2 goals during that run, whereas La Equidad have lost 2 of their last 5 games. The advantage in possession, averaging 56% compared with 40%, should allow Deportivo Cali to control the match and secure the victory.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily based on Deportivo Cali’s current defensive solidity: in their last five matches, the team has conceded just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS landed in only 20% of those appearances. La Equidad scores an average of just 1.0 goal per match, and 25% of their games end without them scoring, increasing the risk that the visitors will fail to break down the hosts’ well-organized defence. Deportivo Cali should have chances to score themselves, as they average 5.83 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 4.08, while La Equidad concede as many as 2.17 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in only 8% of matches. Although La Equidad’s season-long BTTS rate stands at 75%, their weaker trend over the last five games, at 40%, combined with Cali’s defensive strength, slightly favours a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Deportivo Cali score an average of 1.50 goals at home, while La Equidad concede as many as 2.17 goals away from home, clearly supporting a scenario in which the hosts find the net. However, the visitors score only 1.00 goal on average, with an 8% conversion rate, whereas Cali have conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.40 per game. Only 20% of the hosts’ last five matches went over 2.5 goals, while the average total goals in this run was just 1.80. Over the course of the season, both teams more often stay below 3.5 goals: 67% of Cali’s matches and 75% of La Equidad’s. The projected total of 2.45 goals suggests that Under 3.5 offers the greatest safety margin, even if the visitors’ weak defensive record allows the hosts to score more than once.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Deportivo Cali were level at the break in 75% of their matches, compared with 42% for La Equidad; additionally, in their last five games, the visitors had a level half-time score in 60% of cases. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly: Deportivo Cali score an average of 1.00 goals, while La Equidad score only 0.42, with the visitors conceding as many as 1.42 goals in second halves. The hosts won the second half in 57% of matches, whereas La Equidad have not won any, suffering defeats in 50% of second halves. Across the season, Cali average 1.50 goals per match and have an xG of 1.60, compared with 1.00 goal and an xG of 1.29 for the visitors, who also concede an average of 2.17 goals. This supports a scenario of a cautious opening followed by the hosts deciding the match after the break.