Deportivo Capiatá vs Benjamin Aceval: match statistics

Although Benjamin Aceval sit 4th in the table and Deportivo Capiatá 12th, home and away statistics point to a closely contested match, with a slight edge for the hosts. Both teams average 1.69 goals in these conditions, but Deportivo create marginally better chances: their home xG is 1.58, compared with 1.50 for the visitors away from home. The hosts have lost 23% of their home matches, while Benjamin Aceval have been beaten in 38% of their away fixtures. Recent results nevertheless temper confidence in the forecast: Deportivo have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals, while the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding 11 goals in total. The visitors’ recent defensive struggles and home advantage tip the pick slightly in favour of a Deportivo win.

Across the full season, both teams scored in 64% of Deportivo Capiatá matches and 69% of Benjamin Aceval matches, both above the league average of 56%. The visitors average 1.69 goals per match, while the hosts average 1.43; they also concede 1.38 and 1.21 goals per match, respectively. The likelihood of goals at both ends is further supported by attacking xG averages of 1.49 and 1.50, as well as low rates of matches without scoring: 14% and 15%. However, caution is warranted: Deportivo have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, with BTTS occurring in 40% of their games over that period. Despite the hosts’ recent lack of cutting edge, the case for BTTS - Yes is strengthened by Benjamin Aceval conceding 11 goals in their last 5 appearances, with both teams scoring in 80% of those matches.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line was cleared in 79% of Deportivo Capiatá's matches and 100% of Benjamin Aceval's matches. The teams have similar attacking potential according to xG — 1.49 for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors — and concede an average of 1.21 and 1.38 goals per match, respectively. However, in their last 5 matches, the home side scored just 0.4 goals, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.2; this contrast reduces confidence in the exact scoreline but still points to at least two goals. The Over 2.5 goals line is less clear-cut, having landed in 43% of the home side's matches and 62% of the visitors' matches, so Over 1.5 is the pick, with a forecast total of 2.80 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Deportivo Capiatá failed to score before half-time in any of those games. Over the season, the hosts went into the break level in 69% of their matches, further supporting this likely start. The visitors could gain the upper hand after the break: they average 1.15 goals in the second half compared with the hosts’ 0.85, and have won the second half in 62% of matches, versus 38% for Deportivo. Benjamin Aceval also have the higher average goals per match overall, 1.69 to 1.43, making the HT/FT pick a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2). Confidence is tempered by their recent form, however: they lost 4 of their previous 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game.