Deportivo Cuenca Juniors vs Gualaceo SC: match statistics

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors sit 4th, while Gualaceo SC are 9th, and the gap is reflected in their current form: the hosts have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have managed just 2 and have not won any of them. At home, Deportivo win 50% of their matches and concede only 0.7 goals on average, keeping a clean sheet in 60% of games. Away from home, Gualaceo score just 0.6 goals per match, have a win rate of only 10%, and have lost 40% of such fixtures. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 11.6 shots compared with the opponents’ 8.5, while their xG stands at 1.41 versus 1.15 for the visitors. The low scoring efficiency of both teams, with each failing to score in 50% of their matches, increases the likelihood of a draw; however, the stronger defence and home advantage point towards a Deportivo win.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Deportivo Cuenca Juniors had both teams scoring in only 20% of matches, compared with the league average of 36%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 60% of games and have conceded just 2 goals in their last five fixtures, averaging 0.4 per match. Gualaceo SC score only 0.6 goals per away game on average and netted 4 goals in their last five matches, despite recording an xG of 1.53. Deportivo have also been inefficient in front of goal recently, averaging 0.4 goals across their last five matches and recording a 0% BTTS rate during that period. The low league average of 1.86 goals per match, along with only 10% of the hosts’ games finishing over 2.5 goals, further supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The profile of this match clearly points to a low-scoring outcome: 90% of the hosts’ matches and all of Gualaceo SC’s matches ended with fewer than 3.5 goals. Deportivo Cuenca Juniors average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while the visitors score just 0.6 goals per match. In their last five outings, the hosts recorded a combined total of only 2 goals scored and 2 conceded, with none of those matches producing Over 2.5 goals. The league is also highly conservative, averaging 1.86 goals per match, with only 31% of games featuring at least three goals. The xG figures for both sides, at 1.33 and 1.15, suggest the possibility of a few chances, but the visitors’ low conversion rate of 6% and the hosts’ solid defence further support the Under 3.5 goals selection.

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors have the stronger potential to take the lead before half-time: they score an average of 0.67 goals in the first half, compared with just 0.20 for Gualaceo, while the hosts concede only 0.22 goals during this period. The hosts led at the break in 44% of their matches, whereas the visitors were trailing at half-time in 40% of games, reinforcing the scenario of an early home advantage. Across the season, Cuenca win 50% of their matches, averaging 1.7 points per game, while Gualaceo win only 10% and collect 0.8 points per match. However, the game is expected to be low-scoring, as the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches, and both teams frequently draw the second half, in 67% and 70% of cases respectively. The most likely outcome is therefore Deportivo Cuenca Juniors leading at half-time and maintaining their victory through full-time.