Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atlético: match statistics

I predict a home win — Deportivo Garcilaso averages 1.5 goals per home match, while Alianza Atlético scores only 0.83 goals away. Defensively the hosts are superior: they concede 1.17 goals per home match and have a 33% clean sheet rate, whereas the visitors concede 1.33 goals on the road and have recorded no clean sheets (0%). Chance quality is similar by xG (hosts xG 1.32 vs visitors xG 1.37), but Deportivo is significantly more efficient in finishing — conversion 12% versus 6% for Alianza — and the hosts have no goalless home games (0% FTS) compared to 33% away FTS for the visitors. Form supports the edge: in the last 5 matches the hosts have 3 wins and 2 losses averaging 1.8 points per game, while the visitors have 2 wins and 3 losses averaging 1.2 points per game; additionally the hosts win 50% of home matches versus 17% away wins for Alianza. Considering the advantage in finishing efficiency, better defensive metrics and form, I estimate a 65% probability of a home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for an away win.

The home team has kept a clean sheet in 57% of matches this season and only 29% BTTS, while Alianza Atlético has 0% clean sheets and 67% BTTS, giving opposing signals. Average goals: home 1.43 scored and 0.57 conceded vs away 0.83 scored and 1.33 conceded, meaning Garcilaso defends much better than the visitors can score. Additionally, the home side has higher shot conversion (11% vs 6%) and similar xG (1.41 vs 1.37), suggesting more efficient chance conversion. The last 5 matches show some deviation (BTTS 60% for home vs 40% for away), but a 5-match sample is smaller than the seasonal signals. Considering the homes keep a clean sheet in 57% of games and the visitors average only 0.83 goals, a No Goal scenario (no BTTS) appears more likely (60% vs 40%).

Total xG is 2.78 (1.41 xG for Deportivo Garcilaso vs 1.37 xG for Alianza Atlético), which nominally suggests a threshold near 2.7–2.8 goals, but the visitors’ poor finishing lowers the expectation to around 2.25 (1.40 for the home side and 0.85 for the away side). Deportivo has a seasonal goals average of 1.43 and 57% clean sheets, while Alianza averages 0.83 goals per game and a shot conversion rate of ~6% (vs 11% for the hosts), indicating the visitors often fail to convert created chances into goals. In the last 5 matches there were 13 goals total (7 Deportivo, 6 Alianza), i.e. 2.6 goals per game on average, and the hosts’ last 5 xG is 1.24 versus 1.54 for the visitors, which increases the chances of at least 2 goals in the match. Based on these numbers I assign a strong probability to Over 1.5 (80%), a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (55%) and a low probability for Over 3.5 (20%), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5.

Half-time statistics indicate a draw: the home side were level at the break in 57% of matches, the away side in 67%, and the average goals by half-time are only 0.86 for the hosts and 0.83 for the visitors (AVGHT_home 0.86, AVGHT_away 0.83). After the break the home advantage increases — Deportivo scores on average 0.86 goals in the second half versus 0.67 for Alianza and collects 2.0 points after the interval versus 1.33 for the visitors (scored_2hg_avg_home 0.86, scored_2hg_avg_away 0.67; ppg_2hg_home 2.0, ppg_2hg_away 1.33), with the home win rate in second halves at 56% compared to 33% for the away team. Additionally, the hosts have a better shot conversion rate of 11% versus 6% for the visitors and similar xG of 1.41 vs 1.37, while the away side concedes on average 1.33 goals per match (shot_conversion_rate_home 11.0; shot_conversion_rate_away 6.0; xg_for_avg_home 1.41; xg_for_avg_away 1.37; seasonConcededAVG_away 1.33). As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home victory Full-Time, hence my HT/FT pick X/1 (estimated 34%), with 1/1 assessed at 25% and X/X at 20%. Low chances for the visitors are supported by their overall win effectiveness of 17% and the fact that the away side led at the break in only about 14% of matches, which limits the probability of HT/FT combinations starting with an Alianza lead.