Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar: match statistics
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Deportivo Garcilaso played Melgar in Primera División (Peru). The match was played on 28 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Deportivo Garcilaso: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Melgar: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Deportivo Garcilaso scores 1.00 and concedes 1.45 goals per match. Melgar scores 1.64 and concedes 1.36. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Deportivo Garcilaso 64%, Melgar 73%. Over 2.5: Deportivo Garcilaso 36%, Melgar 73%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Deportivo Garcilaso has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.28. Deportivo Garcilaso: 12.8 shots per match, Melgar: 12.3.
Match halves
Deportivo Garcilaso: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.73. Melgar: half-time lead 55%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Deportivo Garcilaso: 76-90+ (4 goals). Melgar: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Melgar has a superior record this season: 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses with 18 goals scored, while Deportivo Garcilaso has 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses with 11 goals. In the last 5 matches Melgar scored 7 goals and registered 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (averaging 1.6 points per match), whereas Garcilaso scored 6 goals with a 1-2-2 record and averages 1.0 point per match. At home Garcilaso averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, xG for 1.35 and xG against 1.14, 50% possession and on average 4.2 shots on target per match; Melgar away averages 1.6 goals but concedes 1.8 and has xG against 1.85, indicating greater defensive exposure for the visitors. The visitors are, however, more efficient in chance conversion (14% vs 12%) and have more goals this season (18 vs 11), which gives them an offensive edge. Considering Melgar’s better efficiency and form and the hosts’ moderate xG advantage at home, I predict an away win; I propose probability distribution: 30% home, 25% draw, 45% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Melgar has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 0% clean sheets, and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games. Deportivo Garcilaso has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and 50% clean sheets, but in the last five matches the home side averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded 1.8, increasing the likelihood of goal exchange. xG metrics confirm both sides as threats: the hosts have xG_for 1.34 and xG_against 1.28, while Melgar has xG_for 1.21 and xG_against 1.85, meaning both teams generate around 1.2–1.3 xG and are exposed to conceding. Additionally, the league averages 2.71 goals per match, the league-wide BTTS rate is 56%, and the over2.5 + BTTS combinations are 50% for the hosts and 80% for Melgar, which reinforces the Both Teams To Score scenario. Despite the hosts having 50% clean sheets, Melgar’s dominant stats (100% BTTS, 0% matches without a goal) and strong recent form (80% BTTS in the last 5) favor BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Deportivo Garcilaso averages 1.67 goals per match, Melgar 1.60; their xG are 1.34 (Deportivo) and 1.21 (Melgar), while opponents create 1.28 xG against Deportivo and 1.85 xG against Melgar, which averaged gives an expected 1.60 goals for the home side and 1.25 for the away side (total 2.85). This season Garcilaso’s matches exceeded 1.5 goals in 83% of cases, Melgar’s in 100% — an average of 92%, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. At the 2.5 threshold the home side has 67% Over, the away 80% (average 74%), and the projected total of 2.85 goals supports a high Over 2.5 percentage. The 3.5 line is less certain: season rates 33% for Garcilaso and 60% for Melgar (average 46%), but since the expected xG total is 2.85, I assess the realistic probability of Over 3.5 at around 38%. Additionally, Melgar have 100% of matches with both teams scoring, Garcilaso 50% (average 75%), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals and further supports selecting Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Deportivo Garcilaso led at half-time in 4 of 6 matches this season (67%) and scores an average of 1.17 goals by the break, while Melgar concedes an average of 0.4 goals by half-time; this is a strong indicator of a home lead at the break. The hosts win 50% of their matches this season, and Melgar concedes an average of 1.8 goals per game versus 1.0 conceded by Garcilaso, which favors a home full-time victory. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.34 compared to the visitors’ 1.21, and the home side attempts more shots (13.0 vs 11.4) with a marginally higher number of shots on target (3.83 vs 3.8), indicating higher-quality chances. For these reasons, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (lead at the break and home win).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Melgar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Melgar is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Deportivo Garcilaso · 1.6 pts / match - Melgar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Melgar is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Deportivo Garcilaso · 1.64 goals / match - Melgar
Melgar is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.45 goals / match - Deportivo Garcilaso · 1.36 goals / match - Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Melgar keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
Melgar scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while Deportivo Garcilaso keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Deportivo Garcilaso
Over / Under - Melgar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Melgar is 62% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / match - Deportivo Garcilaso · 1.91 pts / match - Melgar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Deportivo Garcilaso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Melgar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 55% of matches and wins 45%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Deportivo Garcilaso
Melgar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Liga | Melgar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.45 | 2.72 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 57% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 36% | 54% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 25% | ▲ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 45% | 65% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 80% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Deportivo Garcilaso 1 - 1 - 0 Melgar. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar?
The Primera División match finished Deportivo Garcilaso 1:0 Melgar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Garcilaso and Melgar?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Deportivo Garcilaso won 1, Melgar won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar?
Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.00 goals per game on average and Melgar 1.64. The Primera División average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Deportivo Garcilaso's matches and 73% of Melgar's.
What form are Deportivo Garcilaso and Melgar in?
Over the last 5 games Deportivo Garcilaso have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Melgar 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.