Deportivo Garcilaso vs Real Garcilaso: match statistics

Deportivo Garcilaso are very strong at home: they have won 73% of their matches, average 1.91 goals scored, and have lost just 9% of their home fixtures. Real Garcilaso have clear problems away from home, losing 64% of their matches, conceding an average of 2.09 goals, and failing to keep a clean sheet even once. The hosts also create more danger in the opposition box, averaging 12.36 shots and 4.82 shots on target per match, compared with 9 and 3.55 respectively for the visitors. Their advantage is further supported by chance-quality metrics: Deportivo’s average xG is 1.34, while Real allow opponents 1.80 xG away from home. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but the hosts have conceded only 2 goals during that run, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 64% of their matches this season, above the league average of 56%. Deportivo Garcilaso average 1.91 goals at home, while Real Garcilaso concede as many as 2.09 goals away, and the hosts have failed to score in none of their home matches. The visitors score an average of 1.09 goals per game, but against a home defence allowing 1.23 xG, they have a realistic chance of finding the net. The case for BTTS - Yes is also supported by Real’s weak defence, with not a single clean sheet, although Deportivo’s recent run calls for caution: just 20% BTTS and only 0.4 goals conceded per game across their last five appearances. The balance of the season-long indicators and the visitors’ clear defensive vulnerability nevertheless give a slight edge to the BTTS scenario.

The hosts average 1.91 goals at home, while the visitors’ defense concedes as many as 2.09 goals per away game, clearly supporting at least two goals. Deportivo Garcilaso also create more chances, averaging 15.64 shots and 5.18 shots on target, compared with 9.00 and 3.55 for Real Garcilaso. The 1.5 line has been covered in 73% of both teams’ matches, and neither side has finished a league game without scoring at least one goal. The visitors are capable of adding a goal, having averaged 2.4 goals across their last five appearances, although their average xG over that period stands at 1.30. Higher lines are less reliable, as the hosts have scored just 5 goals and conceded only 2 in their last five matches; therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Garcilaso win, as the hosts were level at the break in 7 of their 11 matches, or 64% of the time. Their first-half defence has been highly stable: they concede an average of just 0.18 goals and have kept a clean sheet at half-time in 82% of matches. After the break, Deportivo Garcilaso score an average of 1.18 goals, while Real Garcilaso concede an average of 1.18 goals in the second half and have won that period in only 9% of matches. The hosts’ overall season advantage is clear, as they win 73% of their matches while scoring an average of 1.91 goals, whereas the visitors lose 64% of their games and concede an average of 2.09 goals. Caution is warranted due to Real Garcilaso’s strong recent run, during which they led at the break in 80% of their five matches; however, the long-term data and Deportivo’s strength after half-time support the X/1 scenario.