Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV Moquegua: match statistics

Deportivo Garcilaso are very strong at home, winning 70% of their matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored, and never failing to find the net this season. UCV Moquegua score just 0.4 goals per away game, fail to score in 70% of their matches, and have lost 70% of those fixtures. The hosts also create significantly more in the final third: they average 12.6 shots, including 5 on target, compared with 9.6 and 3 for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.37 versus UCV’s 1.00. Recent form further favours Garcilaso, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals in the process, whereas UCV have failed to win any of their last 5, scoring just 2 goals. The hosts concede an average of 1.0 goal at home, so given their opponents’ poor away finishing, a home win is the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is UCV Moquegua’s very limited attacking efficiency: the visitors score just 0.4 goals per match on average, and failed to score in as many as 70% of their league games. In their last five appearances, UCV have also managed only 2 goals, or 0.4 per match, while Deportivo Garcilaso have conceded just 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6. The visitors’ BTTS rate stands at only 30% for the season and has dropped to 20% across their last five matches, well below the league average of 56%. Garcilaso do have a 60% BTTS rate over the full season, but their 40% clean-sheet rate and solid recent defensive performances increase the likelihood that the visitors will fail to score. The hosts should have the attacking edge, averaging 3.9 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 3.0 and converting 13% of their attempts, versus just 4% for UCV.

Deportivo Garcilaso score an average of 1.5 goals per match, while UCV Moquegua concede 1.5, indicating solid home potential but not a very high-scoring game. The visitors are clearly limited in attack: they score only 0.4 goals on average, have failed to score in 70% of their matches, and their shot conversion rate is just 4%. In their last five matches, both teams conceded only 3 goals, averaging 0.6 per game, while UCV Moquegua scored just 2 goals during this period. Historically, under 3.5 goals landed in 70% of Garcilaso’s matches and as many as 90% of Moquegua’s, while over 3.5 goals occurred in only 30% and 10% of cases, respectively. A projected total of 2.10 goals, combined with the significant risk of the visitors failing to score, gives the strongest edge to the Under 3.5 market.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Garcilaso win, as the hosts were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 40% for UCV Moquegua. Both teams tend to play cautiously in the first half: Garcilaso score an average of 0.5 goals before the interval, while the visitors manage just 0.2; moreover, both sides kept a clean sheet at half-time in 60% of their matches. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they score an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Moquegua score only 0.2 and concede 1.0. Across the season, Garcilaso average 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 points per match, compared with UCV’s 0.4 goals and 0.5 points; Moquegua have lost 70% of their matches. Current form also favours the hosts: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Moquegua have not won any and have drawn 4 of 5.