Deportivo La Coruña vs UD Las Palmas: match statistics

I back the home win (1) because Deportivo La Coruña shows stronger home metrics: 22 wins this season, 64 goals scored overall and an average of 1.5 goals per home match with 13.4 shots and 4.5 shots on target. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts have 4 wins and 1 draw (4-0-1) yielding 2.6 points per match in that run, while Las Palmas are 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (3-1-1) with 2.0 points. The hosts’ defence has been more stable over the last 5 games – Deportivo conceded 3 goals (0.6 per match) versus 9 conceded by Las Palmas (1.8 per match), and at home the hosts concede on average 1.0 goal per game compared to 1.25 conceded by the visitors on the road. Additionally, home xG is 1.49 versus 1.28 xG for Las Palmas away, clean-sheet rate is 20% for Deportivo vs 25% for Las Palmas, and goal difference at home is +10 versus -3 for Las Palmas on the road; all of which supports a home win, which I estimate at 60%, draw 20%, away win 20%.

Looking at BTTS percentages: Deportivo has 52% of matches with BTTS, Las Palmas 60%, and the league BTTS average is 56%, which favors the scenario of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate was 60% for Deportivo and 100% for Las Palmas; across those five fixtures both teams scored a combined 8 goals each (avg. 1.6 per match), with goals conceded 3 for the home side and 9 for the visitors. Chance statistics confirm this exchange of opportunities: xG for Deportivo is 1.44 versus 1.28 for Las Palmas, and xG against is 1.01 (Deportivo) and 1.40 (Las Palmas), indicating greater defensive vulnerability from the visitors. Additionally, Deportivo averages 4.81 shots on target and 12.67 shots per match versus 3.75 and 11.45 for Las Palmas, with conversion rates of 12% vs 10%; season totals are 64 goals scored and 42 conceded for the home side and 55 scored and 39 conceded for the visitors, with clean sheets at 38% and 30%. Considering these hard numbers and Las Palmas’ 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches, the best pick is BTTS - Yes and I assess its probability at 72% (No BTTS 28%).

Expected total goals are around 2.43: home xG is 1.42 (xG for 1.44 and xG against for Las Palmas 1.40), away xG is 1.01 (xG for 1.28 and xG against for Deportivo 1.01). Seasonal percentages show homes had Over 1.5 in 71% of matches, guests in 70%; hosts score on average 1.57 goals vs. 1.10 for visitors, which gives a strong signal for Over 1.5 (I estimate 75%). The 2.5 line is balanced: seasonal Over 2.5 is 43% for homes and 45% for guests, and my expected 2.43 goals sits just below the 2.5 threshold; additionally, in the last 5 matches the away side conceded 9 goals vs. 3 for the home side, which partially lifts the chance of Over 2.5 to 48%. Over 3.5 is unlikely — seasonal Over 3.5 is only 19%/20%, and although both teams scored in 52% and 60% of matches, 4+ goals are rare, so I go with Under 3.5 at 82%.

The home side are favored to lead at the break — they led at half-time in 12 matches (57%) and average 0.95 goals in the first half versus Las Palmas' 0.40, with average first-half concessions 0.33 vs 0.40; the hosts have scored 27 first-half goals compared to the visitors' 16, indicating a typical HT score of 1-0. Deportivo's advantage persists over the full match: season averages are 1.57 goals for the home team versus 1.10 for the away side, xG 1.44 vs 1.28, and a higher home win rate 57% vs 35%, all supporting the maintenance of the lead and a home victory. The visitors are, however, more active after the break — their second-half average is 1.55 with 0.70 goals scored after half-time and as many as 7 goals in minutes 76–90 — hence a small chance of a turnaround or an equalizer. In the last five matches Deportivo form is 'dwwww' with an 80% win rate, but in this short sample as many as 60% of matches were level at half-time, which raises the probability of the X/1 scenario as an alternative.