Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia CF: match statistics

Deportivo La Coruña remain unbeaten this season, drawing both of their matches so far, while Valencia have recorded a draw and a defeat after two rounds and are yet to score. In their last five matches, the hosts have collected 6 points, won once and scored 4 goals, whereas Valencia have picked up 5 points but lost 2 of those games and conceded 5 goals. At home, Deportivo average 8 shots per match, with 3 on target, and despite low possession of 39%, they score an average of 1 goal per game and have failed to score in none of their matches. However, the cautious nature of this fixture should be taken into account: the hosts have an average xG of 0.97 compared with their opponents’ 1.36, while their only home appearance ended in a draw. Home advantage and Valencia’s lack of attacking efficiency point towards a narrow Deportivo victory, although a draw remains a highly realistic outcome.

The BTTS pick is primarily based on the very low scoring efficiency of both teams: Deportivo and Valencia have averaged just 0.8 goals each over their last 5 matches. The hosts have failed to score in 100% of their home games so far, while their current xG across their last five appearances is only 0.93. Valencia also have limited attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.11 and just 4 goals in their last five matches. Although both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five fixtures, the league average is 47%, and the goal-scoring data points to an elevated risk that at least one side will fail to score. Therefore, BTTS - No is the most likely scenario, which also includes results where only one team scores.

Both teams have averaged 0.8 goals scored over their last five matches, while Deportivo conceded 0.8 goals per game compared with 1.0 for Valencia. The attacking potential generated during this period has also been moderate: average xG stands at 0.93 for the home side and 1.11 for the visitors, with xG conceded at 1.04 and 1.28, respectively. None of Deportivo’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, while this occurred in 40% of Valencia’s games. The projected total of 2.05 goals is below the league average of 2.35, which is why Under 3.5 goals has by far the strongest statistical backing.

The strongest signal is a cautious start: in the available home matches, Deportivo were level at half-time in 100% of cases, scoring and conceding no goals before the break. Valencia have also avoided losing any first half in their last five matches, leading in 50% and drawing in 50%, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded before half-time. Both teams have a draw-oriented full-time profile, as Deportivo drew 60% of their last five matches, while Valencia drew 40%. After the break, the hosts scored an average of 0.4 goals and conceded just 0.2, whereas Valencia averaged no goals scored and 1.0 conceded, giving Deportivo a greater chance of securing a late result than the visitors. Nevertheless, the low average total-goals figures recorded by both teams across their last five outings—1.6 and 1.8—primarily support a draw scenario both at half-time and at the final whistle.