Deportivo Madryn vs All Boys: match statistics

Deportivo Madryn holds a significant home advantage: they average 1.4 goals per home match versus All Boys’ mere 0.55 goals per away game, and in the last 5 meetings the hosts scored 7 goals against the visitors’ 3. Madryn displays superior shot efficiency — conversion rate 12% versus All Boys’ 6% — and average 3.2 shots on target per home match compared to 2.73 for the away side, translating into more high-quality chances. Defensively All Boys concede 1.45 goals on average away, while Madryn concedes 1.00 at home, and visitors fail to score in 55% of their away fixtures versus 20% FTS for the hosts. xG analysis shows similar creation (1.27 xG for Madryn at home vs 1.24 xG for All Boys away), but All Boys allow 1.57 xG against compared to the hosts’ 1.30 xG against, suggesting the quality of chances created against them is higher. Considering the edge in finishing and home statistics (home goal difference +4 vs away teams’ -10), I assess the probability of a home win at 65%, draw 20%, and away win 15%.

I back BTTS - No because the majority of seasonal signals point to low BTTS frequency: Deportivo Madryn 36%, All Boys 36%, league 39%. Deportivo Madryn have a 64% clean sheet rate and concede 0.36 goals per game while scoring 0.64; at home they record 3.64 shots on target per game and xG 1.40, indicating chance creation but low finishing efficiency. All Boys average 0.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game on the season, xG 1.24 and 2.73 shots on target as away team, and with a shot conversion rate of 6% their real scoring capability is limited. A counterpoint is the hosts’ last 5 matches — 80% BTTS and on average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded — but this short run contradicts the season-long 64% clean sheet rate. Based on this I assign a 30% probability that both teams score (BTTS - Yes) and 70% that they do not (BTTS - No), because the dominant factors are the hosts’ high clean sheet share and the low seasonal BTTS percentages (36–39%).

Combining xG and defensive metrics yields estimates: Deportivo’s attacking xG 1.40 correlated with All Boys’ conceded xG 1.57 gives 1.49 expected goals for the home side, while All Boys’ attacking xG 1.24 against Deportivo’s xG against 1.04 yields 1.14 for the away side. Due to low actual finishing (conversion rate 6% and seasonal goals-per-game averages 0.64 for Deportivo and 0.55 for All Boys) I applied a conservative weight of 60% xG / 40% historical results and obtained expected goals 1.15 (home) and 0.90 (away), totaling 2.05. A Poisson model with λ=2.05 gives probability Over 1.5 goals ≈61%, Over 2.5 goals ≈34% and Over 3.5 goals ≈15%. Additionally, seasonal indicators support a low-scoring outcome: Deportivo has 64% clean sheets and only 9% of matches Over 2.5, while All Boys has 36% of matches Over 2.5 but a goals-per-game of 0.55 and 27% clean sheets, which together reduce the chance of a high-scoring game. Therefore I recommend playing Under 2.5 as the strongest signal — estimated probability of Under 2.5 is about 66% and is supported by the home side’s 9% Over 2.5 season rate and the league average Over 2.5 of 31%.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X), since the home team were level at the break in 91% of their matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 91.0) and score only 0.18 goals on average by half-time (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.18). Over the full 90 minutes the home side win 27% and draw 73% of matches (winPercentage_home = 27.0, drawPercentage_home = 73.0), while the away team win only 9% on the road (winPercentage_away = 9.0), which limits the likelihood of an away victory. The xG difference is small (home xG 1.40 versus away 1.24) and shots on target 3.64 vs 2.73 do not indicate a clear offensive advantage, so I expect a low tempo and few goals. The home side also have 73% clean sheets at half-time (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 73.0) and only 18% of matches with both teams scoring by half-time (seasonBTTSPercentageHT_home = 18.0), which further supports the half-time draw scenario. At the same time four home goals scored in minutes 76–90 suggest a possible second-half turnaround in favour of the hosts, hence I assign a moderate probability to the X/1 scenario as an alternative, while an away win remains unlikely.