Deportivo Madryn vs Almirante Brown: match statistics

Deportivo Madryn clearly dominates in home chances: on average 1.67 goals and 4 shots on target per match with 59% possession and a shot conversion rate of 17%. Almirante Brown on the road scores only 0.5 goals per match, records 1.75 shots on target and has a low conversion of 6%, and in 50% of away fixtures fails to score. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 7 goals and average 1.6 points per game, while the visitors scored 2 goals and average 0.8 points per game over the same period. The visitors, however, defend solidly away — conceding only 0.5 goals on average and keeping 75% clean sheets on the road — which increases the chance of a draw. Looking at xG (1.28 for the hosts vs 0.91 for the visitors), the higher number of shots on target (4 vs 1.75) and the fact that the hosts have not had a goalless home match (0% FTS vs 50% FTS for the visitors), I favor a home win.

Statistical analysis indicates a low probability for BTTS: Deportivo Madryn averages 0.67 goals per match, Almirante Brown 0.5, and season rates of matches with both teams scoring are only 33% and 25%. Almirante as an away side keeps a clean sheet in 75% of matches, and in the league overall 79% of games finish with one team recording a clean sheet, which significantly reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Although the home side produces higher xG (1.58 vs 0.91), more shots (11.67 vs 8.0) and more shots on target (3.67 vs 1.75), their actual goal output is low (0.67 goals with a 6% conversion rate), so chances do not translate into goals regularly. In the last 5 matches Deportivo averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 0.6, while Almirante in their last 5 averages 0.4 scored and concedes 1.0, indicating one side is more active offensively while the opponent defends effectively. Considering the low season BTTS rates (33%/25%) and the high prevalence of clean sheets (75%/79%), I select BTTS = 'No' as the more probable outcome.

Based on xG: the home side have xG_for 1.58 while the visitors’ defense xG_against is 1.00, yielding an estimated 1.29 goals for Deportivo; the away side have xG_for 0.91 against the home defense xG_against 1.12, giving about 1.01 for Almirante, total ~2.30 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.30 implies roughly a 67% chance of at least 2 goals (over 1.5), ~40% for 3+ goals (over 2.5) and only ~20% for 4+ goals (over 3.5). Seasonal figures confirm low goal volatility: Deportivo at home average 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded, Almirante away average 0.50 scored and have kept a clean sheet in 75% of matches; both teams have 0% of games exceeding 3.5 goals this season. In the last 5 matches Deportivo scored 7 goals (1.4 avg), Almirante only 2 (0.4), and the league has a low mean of 1.83 goals per match, which limits the probability of a high-scoring game. Therefore I recommend the under side at the 3.5 line as the strongest signal (≈80% chance of under 3.5), with additional support for under 2.5 (≈60%) due to the statistically low frequency of games over 2.5 and the high away clean sheet rate (75%).

A half-time draw appears most likely: the home team were level at the break in 67% of their matches and the visitors in 75%, strongly favoring a draw after 45 minutes. After the interval, however, the advantage shifts to the hosts — the home xG is 1.58 versus the visitors’ 0.91, average shots 11.67 vs 8.0, and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 6 first-half goals (1.0 per game) compared to just 2 for the visitors (0.2), translating to 1.6 points per game for the hosts versus 0.8 for the visitors in that period. At the same time the visitors’ defense is solid: over the season they kept a clean sheet in 75% of matches and had 100% clean sheets at half-time, while the league is characterised by 79% clean sheets, so BTTS situations are rare (33% of the home team’s matches and 25% of the visitors’ matches). As a result the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign this scenario 35% probability, followed by a half-time/full-time draw (X/X) at 25%.