Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever: match statistics

Deportivo Madryn are clear favourites at home: they win 56% of their home matches, while Chaco For Ever win just 13% of their away games and lose 56%. The hosts average 1.69 goals at home, whereas the visitors score just 0.56 away and fail to find the net in 63% of those matches. Deportivo’s advantage is also reflected in their average xG: 1.44 in home games compared with Chaco’s 1.03 away, as well as twice as many shots on target per match — 4.44 compared with 2.13. The hosts’ defence concedes an average of 0.69 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in 44% of matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances. Deportivo have recorded 3 wins and conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for at least one team failing to score is Chaco For Ever’s attack: the visitors have failed to score in 63% of their matches and average just 0.56 goals. Deportivo Madryn keep a clean sheet in 44% of their games and have conceded an average of only 0.6 goals across their last 5 matches. The hosts have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.31 goals compared with the visitors’ 0.56, but that does not mean both sides will find the net. BTTS - Yes has landed in 50% of Deportivo’s matches and 31% of Chaco’s, while the league average is 39%, further supporting a BTTS - No pick. One counterpoint is the visitors’ improvement to an average of 1.0 goals scored in their last 5 appearances, so this is not a risk-free prediction.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 87% of matches for both the home and away teams. Chaco For Ever averages just 0.56 goals per match and failed to score in 63% of its games, limiting the chances of a high-scoring game. Deportivo Madryn averages 1.31 goals scored and 0.88 conceded, so its advantage does not necessarily point to a high goal total. The league average of 1.94 goals per match also supports a cautious forecast, although the home side has scored slightly more often in its last five matches, averaging 1.6 goals. Overall, I expect around 2.00 goals, making Under 3.5 a safer pick than Under 2.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Madryn win, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and recorded this HT/FT pattern in 38% of their games this season. Caution against backing them to lead at the break is also warranted: they have averaged just 0.2 first-half goals across their last 5 matches, while Chaco For Ever conceded none in that period. The hosts’ advantage is much clearer after the break: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.4 second-half goals compared with the visitors’ 0.2, and won 4 of those 5 second halves. Across the season, Deportivo Madryn have averaged 1.31 goals per match against Chaco For Ever’s 0.56; the hosts also have the higher xG, 1.46 to 1.03, strengthening the case for a home win at full-time. Uncertainty around the half-time result is increased by the visitors’ recent first-half form—they led in 3 of their last 5 matches—but their weaker scoring after the break ultimately points to the X/1 HT/FT pick.