Deportivo Maipú vs Patronato: match statistics

Deportivo Maipú are clearly more effective at home, averaging 1.31 goals per match, while Patronato average just 0.46 away from home. The hosts win 62% of their home matches and lose only 23%, whereas the visitors have won just 8% of their away games, with a 38% defeat rate. Maipú’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average home xG of 1.62 compared to Patronato’s 1.13 away from home, while shots on target stand at 4.62 to 3.15. The hosts concede an average of 0.69 goals at home, while Patronato fail to score in 62% of their away matches. A draw remains a realistic outcome given Patronato’s 54% away draw rate, but Maipú’s superior form, including 3 wins in their last 5 matches, points to a home win.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is not Patronato’s very poor finishing: the visitors score just 0.46 goals per match on average and have failed to score in 62% of their games. Their season BTTS rate is only 31%, compared with 43% for Deportivo Maipú and a 40% league average. Maipú keep a clean sheet in 36% of matches, while Patronato, despite recent improvement, still average only 3.15 shots on target and have a 5% conversion rate, compared with 4.0 and 10% for the hosts. The teams’ last five matches produced BTTS in 40% of games each, but Patronato conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period, which supports a home win with a clean sheet more than a Goal/Goal outcome. The low league average of 1.94 goals and the fact that only 23% of Patronato’s matches have produced over 2.5 goals further strengthen the BTTS - No scenario, in which at least one team fails to score.

The match profile clearly points to a low-scoring outcome: fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 86% of Deportivo Maipú’s matches and as many as 92% of Patronato’s. Patronato average just 0.46 goals away from home, have failed to score in 62% of their away games, while Deportivo Maipú concede only 1.07 goals per match at home. The hosts are more offensive, averaging 1.21 goals and 12.43 shots per game, yet only 29% of their matches featured at least 3 goals. Even considering their stronger recent run, during which both teams averaged 1.4 goals per game, the projected total is 1.98 goals. The Under 3.5 line holds the edge, as a four-goal scenario would require a departure from the highly consistent defensive trend of both teams and the entire league, where the average stands at 1.94 goals.

Deportivo Maipú led at the break in 6 of 14 matches, or 43% of their games, while Patronato score just 0.23 goals per match before half-time. The hosts average 0.79 goals scored and only 0.36 conceded in the first half, whereas the visitors failed to score before the break in as many as 77% of their away matches. Maipú’s advantage is also evident over the full match: they average 1.52 xG compared with Patronato’s 1.13, register 12.43 shots versus 8.69, and have twice the finishing efficiency, 10% to 5%. Patronato have won only 8% of their matches this season and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five games, so the most likely outcome is a home lead at half-time followed by a Maipú win at the final whistle. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as the visitors were level at the break in 54% of their matches; however, Patronato’s weaker second-half performances favour a full-time victory for Maipú.