Deportivo Maipú vs San Martín San Juan: match statistics

Deportivo Maipú have won 56% of their home matches, while San Martín San Juan have won just 25% of their away games and lost half of them. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches, with two wins and three draws; over the same period, the visitors have won once and lost three times. Maipú’s edge in chance creation is reflected in their home xG of 1.71, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.08, as well as 4.88 shots on target per game against 2.73. The hosts concede an average of 0.63 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while the visitors average 0.81 goals scored away from home. These differences point to a Maipú win, although their home scoring average of 1.19 goals means a draw remains a realistic possibility.

The strongest indication is that San Martín San Juan may fail to score: the visitors average 0.81 goals per match, while Deportivo Maipú keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches. In their last 5 matches, the visitors averaged just 0.6 goals, and both teams scored in only 20% of their matches, compared with 40% for the hosts. Deportivo create more threat, averaging 1.59 xG and 4.94 shots on target, while the visitors post 1.08 xG and 2.73 shots on target. Although the season-long rates of matches in which both teams scored stand at 56% and 50%, the visitors' lower scoring output and the league average of 39% support the BTTS - No pick: at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 87% of Deportivo Maipú matches and in all of San Martín San Juan’s matches. Both teams went over the 2.5-goal line in only 38% of their games, indicating a bias toward lower-scoring results. The home side average 1.31 goals scored and 0.81 conceded, while the visitors average 0.81 scored and 1.19 conceded. The last five Deportivo matches averaged 1.6 goals, and San Martín matches averaged 1.8, further supporting the Under 3.5 goals pick.

In their last five matches, Deportivo Maipú have been level at half-time every time, while San Martín San Juan went into the break level in three of their five games, pointing to a closely contested first half. However, the hosts led at the break in 63% of their matches this season, so the 1/1 outcome remains almost equally likely. The hosts have the stronger chances of deciding the match after the break: in their last five games, they conceded an average of 0.2 goals in second halves, compared with 0.8 for the visitors. Deportivo earned 1.8 points per match over this period and did not lose once, whereas San Martín averaged 0.8 points and suffered three defeats. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a home win is a slightly stronger pick than the draw holding or Deportivo leading from the first half.