Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Deportivo Pasto played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 29 March 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Deportivo Pasto: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Deportivo Pasto scores 1.54 and concedes 1.15 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 2.17 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.51 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Deportivo Pasto 54%, Atlético Nacional 33%. Over 2.5: Deportivo Pasto 54%, Atlético Nacional 75%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.39. Deportivo Pasto: 13.1 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 15.9.
Match halves
Deportivo Pasto: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.92. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.50.
Goals by minute
Deportivo Pasto: 76-90+ (8 goals). Atlético Nacional: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.51 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Deportivo Pasto possess a clear home advantage: 71% home wins and 57% clean sheets with only 0.57 avg goals conceded at home. Atlético Nacional have better season goal output (26 goals) but record only 17% CS away and 50% of away matches without scoring, conceding 1.17 on average. xG and shot stats are similar (xG For 1.44 vs 1.41, ~13 shots), indicating comparable offensive strength. Both sides have similar recent form and 2.4 PPG in last five, but Pasto’s home defensive stability gives them the edge. Therefore I predict a home win, though a draw or away victory are not fully excluded.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis suggests both teams likely to score: Deportivo Pasto has high xG_for (1.92) and a 3.0 goals-per-match scoring average, Atlético Nacional posts xG_for 1.41 and season scoring above 1, combined with opponents’ xG_against (1.09 and 1.23) indicating both have scoring chances. Pasto last5 BTTS 60% and league trend BTTS 56% support Both Teams To Score. Against this is Pasto’s season CS% 67%, which lowers probability, but recent defensive instability increases risk. Given hosts’ offensive edge, decent away parameters and league tendency, recommend BTTS = Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Data indicate high scoring potential, especially for the home side—Pasto home season goals average 3.0 and xG_for_home 1.92 with high conversion (16%) and many shots. Atlético Nacional generates xG 1.41 and is in good form, yielding total expected goals ~2.83. Season percentages show frequent Over 2.5 (Pasto 83%, Nacional 67%), and Over 1.5 is near-constant for the home team. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5, though Over 2.5 also has solid probability. Recommendation: play Over 1.5 as the most justified option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Data clearly indicate Deportivo Pasto dominance at home: 100% home wins, 83% leads at half-time and on average 1.17 first-half goals with only 0.17 conceded. Atlético Nacional has very low first-half efficiency (0.17 goals) and more frequent HT deficits, increasing the probability of a home lead after 45 minutes. xG difference, shots and offensive passing effectiveness favor Pasto to maintain the lead in the second half as well. Low BTTS rates for both teams and a high HT clean sheet percentage for the hosts confirm 1/1 as the strongest signal. Therefore I recommend HT/FT 1/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Deportivo Pasto | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 41% better for: goals scored per match.
1.54 goals / match - Deportivo Pasto · 2.17 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 53% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.15 goals / match - Deportivo Pasto · 0.75 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Deportivo Pasto scores in 85% of matches (11 of 13 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 42% (5 of 12 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 75% of matches (9 of 12 matches), while Deportivo Pasto keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Deportivo Pasto
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.54 pts / match - Deportivo Pasto · 1.75 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Deportivo Pasto - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Deportivo Pasto
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Deportivo Pasto | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.69 | 2.51 | ▲ 2.92 |
| Both teams scored | • 54% | 55% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 48% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 26% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 70% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 79% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Deportivo Pasto 0 - 1 - 1 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Deportivo Pasto 1:2 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo Pasto and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 0, Atlético Nacional won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional?
Deportivo Pasto score 1.54 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 2.17. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Deportivo Pasto's matches and 33% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Deportivo Pasto and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Deportivo Pasto have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.