Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali: match statistics

Deportivo Pasto have clearly stronger foundations at home: they win 50% of their matches there, score an average of 1.25 goals, and keep a clean sheet in 42% of games. Deportivo Cali win just 20% of their away fixtures, score only 0.8 goals per match, and fail to find the net in as many as 50% of their outings. However, the hosts are currently in poor form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches overall, scoring 6 and conceding 8 goals in the process. The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 games, with a 10:3 goal difference over that period, which significantly increases their chances of earning points. Despite Cali’s better current run, Pasto’s home advantage and their opponents’ poor away scoring record marginally favour a home win.

BTTS - No is primarily supported by Deportivo Pasto’s solid home defensive record: the hosts concede an average of just 0.55 goals, keep a clean sheet in 55% of matches, while Deportivo Cali score only 0.80 goals away from home. Both teams’ seasonal BTTS rates are low—36% for Pasto and 40% for Cali—well below the league average of 53%. Cali fail to score in as many as 50% of their matches, while Pasto restrict opponents to just 0.92 xG, further increasing the risk of a blank for the visitors. Cali’s recent form is better, having scored 10 goals across their last five matches and recording 1.44 xG, but Pasto remain the more likely side to keep at least one team off the scoresheet. In addition, only 18% of Pasto’s matches go over 2.5 goals, pointing to a more compact game profile rather than one conducive to both teams scoring.

Deportivo Pasto average 1.27 goals scored and concede only 0.55 at home, while Deportivo Cali score just 0.80 goals away from home. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their matches, while the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away games, clearly limiting the prospects of an open contest. Seasonally, 91% of Pasto’s matches and 90% of Cali’s ended with fewer than 3.5 goals, with results featuring at least four goals accounting for only 9% and 10%, respectively. Even despite Cali’s improved recent run, during which they scored 10 goals in five matches, their average xG over that period stands at 1.44, while Pasto’s solid defense has a seasonal xG against of just 0.92. The 2.15-goal forecast indicates that Under 3.5 has by far the strongest foundation, supported both by the teams’ defensive profiles and their long-term results.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Cali win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 70% of their matches and have not conceded a single first-half goal in their last five games. Current form clearly favours Cali: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Pasto have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. However, the hosts have strong full-season home figures, averaging 2.0 points per match, scoring 1.27 goals and conceding only 0.55, which is why a draw at half-time remains more likely than a visitors’ lead. After the break, Cali have shown better current momentum, scoring an average of 1.2 second-half goals in their last five appearances, whereas Pasto have failed to score a single goal after half-time during this period. In addition, the hosts led at the break in only 20% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Cali, further strengthening the visitors’ chances of turning an evenly balanced start in their favour.