Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira: match statistics

Deportivo Pasto have a clear home advantage in terms of potential: they average 1.07 goals per match, with an xG of 1.21, while Deportivo Pereira score just 0.46 goals away from home and create chances worth 0.76 xG. The visitors have not won a single away match, losing 62% of such fixtures, and have failed to score in as many as 69% of their away games. Pereira allow opponents an average of 1.94 xG and concede 1.54 goals away from home, giving the hosts a realistic chance to end a poor run that includes 4 defeats in their last 5 matches. Pasto are not in strong form either, having scored just 4 goals in their last five games, so the risk of a draw remains significant. Nevertheless, the hosts’ home record, featuring a 43% win rate, combined with Pereira’s extremely limited attacking output, points towards a Pasto victory.

The strongest signal is Deportivo Pereira’s poor finishing: the visitors score an average of just 0.46 goals per match, and have netted only 2 goals in their last five fixtures, averaging 0.4 per game. Pereira have failed to score in 69% of their matches this season, while Deportivo Pasto keep a clean sheet in 33% of games. BTTS has landed in only 44% of Pasto’s matches and 31% of Pereira’s, clearly below the league average of 52%; across the teams’ last five matches, this figure stood at just 20% for each side. The hosts are not a particularly high-scoring team either, averaging 1.0 goal with an xG of 1.20, but their 4.33 shots on target per match give them a better chance of scoring than their opponents. A BTTS scenario cannot be ruled out due to Pasto’s weaker defence, which concedes an average of 1.44 goals, but the more likely outcome is a match in which at least one team—Pereira in particular—fails to score. This supports BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Deportivo Pereira score just 0.46 goals per away match, while in their last five games they have scored only 2 goals, averaging 0.4. The away side have stayed below the 2.5-goal line in each of their last five matches, and both teams scored in only 20% of their games during this period. Pasto have greater attacking potential, averaging 11.67 shots and creating 1.20 xG, but their recent average goals scored is only 0.8. On a season-long basis, Pereira’s matches finished under 3.5 goals in 77% of cases, compared with 56% for Pasto, while only 8% of the visitors’ away matches produced over 4.5 goals. The projected total of 1.95 goals indicates a limited risk of four goals being scored, making Under 3.5 the best option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at both half-time and full-time, as Pereira were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and failed to score before half-time in any of them. Pasto also tend to start cautiously, averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded before the break, while 44% of their matches were level at half-time. The visitors’ attacking output is limited to 0.46 goals per match this season, with no goal scored in 69% of their fixtures, whereas Pasto average just one goal per match. In their last five appearances, Pereira conceded only 0.4 goals per game and recorded three draws, clearly strengthening the case for a low-scoring full-time outcome. The hosts have lost four of their last five matches, but Pereira have not won a single game all season, making a draw being maintained until the final whistle the most likely scenario.