Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros: match statistics

Deportivo Pasto have home advantage: they win 46% of their home matches, score an average of 1.15 goals and create chances worth 1.27 xG. Llaneros score only 0.73 goals per away match, fail to score in 36% of their games and record a lower xG of 1.07, although the hosts’ defence concedes an average of 1.33 xG. The key argument for caution regarding the hosts is their current form: they have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9. Llaneros, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five matches, with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw, and have conceded just 3 goals. With Llaneros drawing 36% of their away matches and both sides posting similar average goals-conceded figures, a closely contested draw appears the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - No scenario has a slight edge, as Llaneros average only 0.73 goals per game across the season, fail to score in 36% of their matches, and BTTS occurs in just 36% of their fixtures. Deportivo Pasto do have a high season BTTS rate of 64%, but their last five matches produced this outcome in only 40% of cases. The hosts are currently weak defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches with an xG against of 1.60, which supports Llaneros’ chances of scoring. On the other hand, Llaneros have conceded only 0.6 goals per game during this run and allowed opponents an xG of 0.82. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team—most notably Pasto or the less clinical visitors—will fail to score, meaning BTTS - No rather than necessarily a 0:0 draw.

The season profiles of both teams clearly point towards a limited number of goals: 73% of Deportivo Pasto’s matches and as many as 82% of Llaneros’ games finished with Under 2.5 goals. A particularly strong argument for a low-scoring outcome is Llaneros, whose all league matches so far—100%—have finished Under 3.5 goals, while this scenario occurred in 73% of Pasto’s matches. The hosts score an average of 1.27 goals, while the visitors average just 0.73, with Llaneros keeping a clean sheet in 36% of their matches. The visitors’ recent form is better, as they have scored 9 goals and conceded just 3 in their last five matches, but their season average for total goals remains below the league figure of 2.54. The projected 2.10 goals indicates that Under 3.5 is the most likely and safest betting angle.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Llaneros win in the match, as 55% of the visitors’ games and as many as 64% of Deportivo Pasto’s home matches have been level at the break. Llaneros score just 0.09 goals per game before half-time and fail to score in the first half in 91% of their matches, which clearly increases the likelihood of a cautious start. After the break, however, the visitors have shown excellent current form: they have won 80% of their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded in second halves. Pasto have lost four of their last five games, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match during this period and failing to score after half-time, giving Llaneros strong grounds to turn a level match in their favour late on.