Deportivo Pereira vs Alianza Petrolera: match statistics

I expect a draw, mainly due to Deportivo’s high home draw rate (50% of home matches ending in a draw) and Alianza’s very poor away finishing (71% of away matches without scoring). Deportivo Pereira at home has 0 wins, averages 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match, with xG 1.07 vs xG against 1.59, indicating defensive deficit despite creating chances. The hosts generate 4.17 shots on target per home match and have a 10% conversion rate, which is their primary offensive strength. Alianza Petrolera away averages just 0.29 goals and only 3% shot conversion on the road, but overall in the last 5 matches they have a 2-2-1 record and average 1.6 points per match while conceding only 2 goals in that span. The xG comparison (home 1.07 vs away 0.97) and low average goals (home 1.00 vs away 0.29) suggest few goals and a higher probability of a points split than a decisive win. Based on this I assess the chances as: Draw 45%, Home win 30%, Away win 25%.

I project a BTTS - No scenario with 66% probability vs 34% for Yes. Deportivo Pereira averages 0.71 goals per match, Alianza Petrolera only 0.29, and seasonal BTTS rates are 43% for Pereira and 29% for Alianza, indicating a low propensity for both teams to score. In the last 5 matches BTTS was 40% for the home side and 20% for the away side, and Pereira kept a clean sheet in 43% of games, which further supports a No Goal outcome. Although combined xG is 1.22 for Pereira and 0.97 for Alianza (2.19 total), low shot conversion rates of 6% vs 3% and average shots on target of 3.29 and 2.29 suggest chances rarely convert into goals for both sides. Alianza has only 7 goals this season and a seasonal average of 2.0 goals conceded, meaning they often concede, but their own low scoring average (0.29) makes them less likely to score, overall strengthening the signal for No Goal.

A model combining both teams' xG and defensive metrics yields approximately 1.34 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.08 for Alianza Petrolera, totaling 2.42 goals, which strongly favors Over 1.5 goals. Deportivo scores on average 0.71 goals with an xG of 1.22 (difference 0.51), while Alianza records 0.29 with an xG of 0.97 (difference 0.68), indicating both teams create more chances than they finish. Alianza concedes on average 2.00 goals per match and has 0% clean sheets, and the home side averages 3.29 shots on target per match versus 2.29 for the visitors — this increases the probability of at least two goals. Seasonally Pereira’s matches finished Over 1.5 goals in 57% of cases and Alianza’s in 71%, while Over 2.5 is rare (14% and 29%), so the 2.5 line is less convincing. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal based on 2.42 expected goals and Alianza’s lack of clean sheets.

The most likely half-time state is a draw — the home side were level at the break in 57% of their matches, while the visitors recorded a half-time draw in 43% of fixtures. However, Deportivo Pereira have the edge after the break: their xG is 1.22 versus Alianza’s 0.97, the hosts average 3.29 shots on target compared to 2.29 for the opponent and have a higher conversion rate (6% vs 3%), which favors scoring in the second half. The visitors concede on average 2.0 goals per match, while the hosts score on average 0.43 goals by half-time whereas Alianza have 0.0 in that metric, indicating a weaker start from the away side and defensive vulnerability. Combining the 57% chance of a half-time draw with Deportivo’s superiority in creating and converting chances, the most sensible HT/FT tip is X/1 — draw at half-time and home win after 90 minutes.