Deportivo Recoleta vs Olimpia: match statistics

Olimpia have a clearly superior season record: they have won 17 of 27 matches and conceded just 23 goals, while Deportivo Recoleta have suffered 13 defeats and conceded 45 goals. The hosts are particularly unreliable in terms of current form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 goals but conceding as many as 13. Over the same period, Olimpia have collected 7 points, while their away defence concedes an average of 0.92 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 38% of games. Recoleta do average 1.86 goals and 5.36 shots on target per home match, but their xG stands at 1.47, below Olimpia’s 1.63 away from home. The visitors also tend to control possession more effectively on the road, averaging 58% compared with Recoleta’s 54% at home, while the edge in chance-creation quality and current stability points towards a narrow victory for the visitors.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by current form, as both teams have recorded this outcome in 80% and 60% of their respective last five matches. Deportivo Recoleta conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game during this period, with an xG against of 2.24, which clearly increases Olimpia’s chances of scoring. Olimpia has averaged 1.56 xG over its last five matches, while across the entire season it averages 4.85 shots on target per game, so its attacking potential remains sufficient despite scoring only 1.0 goal per game on average in its current run. The hosts are also very dangerous at home, averaging 2.0 goals, generating 1.75 xG, and registering 5.36 shots on target per match. The risk to the pick is Olimpia’s solid season-long defense, which keeps a clean sheet in 38% of matches; however, Recoleta’s weaker defense and high BTTS rate in its recent games shift the forecast toward both teams scoring.

The strongest signal is at least a second goal in the match: the 1.5-goal line has been surpassed in 71% of Deportivo Recoleta’s matches and 62% of Olimpia’s. The home side averages 2.00 goals, while Olimpia averages 1.15, with both teams regularly creating high-quality chances, recording average xG figures of 1.75 and 1.63, respectively. Recent form further supports goals, as Recoleta’s last five matches all finished Over 2.5 goals, with the team conceding as many as 13 goals in that span—2.6 per match. Olimpia scored at least once in 77% of their matches, while Recoleta conceded at least one goal in 64%, strengthening the case for an away contribution. The Over 1.5 line offers a clearer edge than higher thresholds, as Under 3.5 has landed in 92% of Olimpia’s matches this season.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Recoleta win at full-time (X/1), as the hosts have been level at the break in 57% of their matches, compared with 38% for Olimpia. The first halves of both teams are usually cautious: Recoleta average 0.43 goals scored and 0.21 conceded, while Olimpia score 0.38 goals. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they average 1.57 goals compared with Olimpia’s 0.77, and have won the second half in 64% of matches, versus 46% for their opponents. Over the season, Recoleta also have a higher overall conversion rate, winning 71% of their matches and averaging 2.00 goals, while Olimpia win 54% of matches and score 1.15 goals. The hosts’ weaker recent run, with 4 defeats in their last 5 appearances, limits confidence in backing them to lead from the outset, but does not rule out their greater potential after the break.