Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón: match statistics

Deportivo Saprissa in the last 5 matches has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 5 goals (1.0 goals per match) and averaging 1.4 points per match. Pérez Zeledón in the same period has not won any game (0 wins), has 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 4 goals (0.8 per match) and collecting only 0.4 points per match. The defensive differential is clear — Saprissa conceded 5 goals in 5 matches (1.0 per match), while Pérez Zeledón conceded 10 goals (2.0 per match), indicating weakness in the visitors' defense. Considering the better winning ability (2 wins vs 0) and significantly higher average points (1.4 vs 0.4), the home side is the favorite, although both teams show moderate offensive efficiency (5 and 4 goals).

In the last 5 matches both teams scored in 40% of cases (40% for the home side and 40% for the away side), providing a moderate basis for BTTS. Deportivo Saprissa scored 5 and conceded 5 in those 5 games (avg 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded), while Pérez Zeledón scored 4 and conceded 10 (0.8 scored, 2.0 conceded), meaning the visitors are significantly more defensively vulnerable. xG confirms this disparity: the hosts have xG_for 1.28 versus the visitors' xG_against 2.08, and the visitors generate xG_for 1.16 against the home xG_against 1.14, which suggests both sides create chances but Pérez Zeledón’s defense is weaker. As a result I expect the hosts to have a high chance to score against a team conceding on average 2.0 goals per game, while the visitors have a moderate chance to score against hosts conceding around 1.0 goal; therefore I pick BTTS - Yes at 60% vs 40% for No.

The average xG over the last 5 matches indicates 1.68 expected goals for Deportivo Saprissa (average from xG_for 1.28 and xG_against of visitors 2.08) and 1.15 for Pérez Zeledón (average from xG_for 1.16 and xG_against of hosts 1.14), totaling 2.83 expected goals. In reality the hosts scored 5 goals in the last 5 matches (1.0 per game), and the visitors scored 4 goals (0.8 per game), but Pérez Zeledón conceded 10 goals in that period (2.0 per game), which increases the likelihood of goals for the home side. Recent Over 2.5 rates show 20% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors in the last 5, so historical results are inconclusive, but the higher xG suggests more goals than the actual goals scored. Based on this the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 88%), while Over 2.5 remains moderately likely (66%) and Over 3.5 less likely (32%). I pick the over side on the 1.5 line as the best option, because the expected 2.83 goals and the visitors conceding on average 2.0 in the last 5 matches give a clear probability of at least two goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 35% probability. Deportivo Saprissa averages 1.4 points per match over the last five games versus Pérez Zeledón’s 0.4 points, and the home side won 40% of those five matches while the visitors have 0% wins. Pérez Zeledón were level at the break in 100% of their last five matches, whereas Saprissa led at half-time in 40% of their most recent five; both teams averaged 0.6 goals by half-time, i.e. a combined 1.2 goals. Additionally, Saprissa scored on average 1.0 and conceded 1.0 goals per match across those five games, while Pérez Zeledón conceded an average of 2.0 goals, which increases the likelihood that after a draw at the break the home side will take the initiative and complete a turnaround to win the match.