Derby County vs Stoke City: match statistics
Derby County vs Stoke City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Derby County played Stoke City in Championship (England). The match was played on 17 October 2026. Venue: Pride Park Stadium. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Derby County: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Stoke City: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Derby County scores 0.90 and concedes 1.90 goals per match. Stoke City scores 1.70 and concedes 1.60. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Derby County 60%, Stoke City 80%. Over 2.5: Derby County 60%, Stoke City 80%. League level: BTTS 66%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Derby County has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.22. Derby County: 12.3 shots per match, Stoke City: 11.4.
Match halves
Derby County: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.40. Stoke City: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Derby County: 16-30 (3 goals). Stoke City: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 66%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Stoke City are 5th and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Derby County are 23rd and have not won during that period. The visitors scored 11 goals across those five games, compared with just 3 for the hosts, clearly highlighting Stoke's greater attacking efficiency. Derby are yet to win at home, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded there, while Stoke average 1.4 goals on the road. The hosts' opportunity lies in their opponents' defence: Stoke concede an average of 2 goals away from home, and opponents create chances worth 2.03 xG against them. Despite this weakness, the visitors' recent run and superior attacking efficiency make a Stoke win the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The case for both teams to score is based primarily on Stoke recording BTTS in 100% of their away matches, while Derby did so in 50% of their home games. Derby average 2.0 goals at home, while Stoke concede 2.0 goals away and allow opponents chances worth 2.03 xG. The visitors also have grounds to find the net: they average 1.4 goals away from home and have scored 2.2 goals per match across their last five games. The risk for this pick is Derby’s recent drop in scoring, averaging just 0.6 goals across five matches, while Stoke have conceded 0.8 goals per game. Nevertheless, the hosts’ home scoring record, combined with neither team having failed to score in their respective home and away matches, gives the BTTS - Yes scenario the edge.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
More than 1.5 goals have been scored in 75% of Derby’s home matches and 100% of Stoke’s away matches, making this the strongest signal for this line. Derby average 2.0 goals at home, while Stoke concede 2.0 away; in addition, the visitors’ xG conceded stands at 2.03 per match. Stoke also have scoring potential: they average 1.4 goals away from home and have scored an average of 2.2 in their last five matches. Although Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Derby’s home matches and 80% of Stoke’s away matches, Derby’s recent scoring rate of 0.6 goals per match increases the risk with the higher line. Therefore, with a forecast of 3.05 goals, Over 1.5 goals offers a clearer edge than Over 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal for Stoke to lead at the break comes from the last five matches: the visitors led in four of them and did not concede a first-half goal in any, while Derby were trailing at half-time three times. Stoke won four of those five matches, whereas Derby failed to win any, scoring an average of 0.6 goals compared with their opponents’ 2.2. This supports the visitors maintaining their advantage and makes 2/2 the pick. However, the risk of a turnaround is significant: Derby have won 75% of their home matches, while Stoke concede an average of 1.4 goals away from home after the break. Therefore, 2/2 is the most likely single scenario, although its edge over 1/1 remains slight.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Derby County | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Stoke City is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Derby County · 2 pts / match - Stoke City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Stoke City is 89% better for: goals scored per match.
0.9 goals / match - Derby County · 1.7 goals / match - Stoke City
Stoke City is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.9 goals / match - Derby County · 1.6 goals / match - Stoke City
Derby County scores in 70% of matches (7 of 10 matches), while Stoke City keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
Stoke City scores in 100% of matches (10 of 10 matches), while Derby County keeps a clean sheet in 10% (1 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Derby County
Over / Under - Stoke City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Stoke City is 90% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Derby County · 1.9 pts / match - Stoke City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Derby County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 10%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Stoke City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Derby County
Stoke City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Derby County | Liga | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.80 | 2.93 | ▲ 3.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 60% | 66% | ▲ 80% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 60% | 63% | ▲ 80% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 20% | • 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 78% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 80% | • 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Derby County 1 - 0 - 1 Stoke City. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Derby County vs Stoke City?
The Championship match finished Derby County 0:1 Stoke City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby County and Stoke City?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Derby County won 1, Stoke City won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Derby County vs Stoke City?
Derby County score 0.90 goals per game on average and Stoke City 1.70. The Championship average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Derby County's matches and 80% of Stoke City's.
What form are Derby County and Stoke City in?
Over the last 5 games Derby County have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Stoke City 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Derby County vs Stoke City?
The statistical background for Derby County vs Stoke City — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.