Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion: match statistics

West Bromwich Albion sit 8th, while Derby County are only 18th, and over their last five matches the visitors have averaged 1.4 points per game compared with 0.8 for the hosts. Derby have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and have failed to win either of their two home games so far, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per match. West Brom average 1.5 goals away from home, register 4 shots on target per game and convert 14% of their attempts, while Derby record 1 goal and a 9% conversion rate. The hosts also have a clear problem defending the quality of chances they concede: opponents have an xG of 2.21 against them, compared with West Brom’s away xG of 1.21. Neither defence has kept a clean sheet in their respective home and away fixtures, making the visitors the favourites, although a Derby goal remains a realistic scenario.

The signal for goals from both sides is very strong, as Derby County and West Bromwich Albion have recorded BTTS at a rate of 100% in the current campaign, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. Derby average 2.0 goals at home, while West Brom concede 2.0 goals per away match, clearly supporting the prospect of a home goal. The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals, while Derby’s defence concedes an average of 1.0, although the hosts have conceded 1.8 goals per match across their last five games. Current form also supports the BTTS scenario: West Brom have seen Goal/Goal in 100% of their last five matches, while both teams have conceded an average of 1.8 goals during this period. High xG figures—1.61 for Derby and 1.21 for West Brom—as well as 1.89 and 0.84 xG conceded by their opponents respectively, point to genuine scoring opportunities at both ends.

Derby average 1.61 xG at home, while West Bromwich Albion allow as much as 1.89 xG away from home, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors generate an average of 1.21 xG, while Derby’s defence allows opponents 0.84 xG, meaning their goal projection remains lower but still realistic. In their last five matches, both teams had at least three goals in 80% of games, and each side conceded an average of 1.8 goals during this period. Furthermore, in the current data, both teams scored and conceded in 100% of matches, significantly reducing the likelihood of a tight match. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projection of 2.90 goals and the offensive-defensive matchup give it a clearly higher probability.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Derby win, as West Bromwich have been level at the break in 100% of their last five matches and have averaged just 0.4 goals before half-time. Derby have a clear attacking advantage at home: their average xG is 1.61 compared with 1.21 for the visitors, while the hosts average 5 shots on target per match against West Bromwich’s 4. Derby’s advantage should become particularly evident after the interval, as they score an average of 1.5 second-half goals at home, while West Bromwich concede as many as 2.0. The visitors are currently dangerous, having averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last five matches, but their defence has conceded an average of 1.8 goals and has failed to keep a clean sheet in any away match. The high scoring averages of both teams—3.0 for Derby and 3.5 for West Bromwich—increase the likelihood of a decisive result after a more cautious first half.