Derby County vs Wrexham: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams. Derby County presents solid home form with 31% wins and an average of 1.23 goals per match, yet their last five home fixtures show instability (ldlddwwwllddw). In away matches, Wrexham is characterized by a high percentage of draws (42%) and better shooting efficiency (14% shot conversion versus 11% for Derby). The visitors' recent form is impressive with three victories in five matches and 2.0 PPG. A key factor is that Wrexham possesses a zero goal difference on the road and 33% clean sheets, suggesting a solid defense. Given the balanced xG statistics for both teams and Wrexham's tendency to draw away, the most likely outcome is a share of the points, although Derby holds a slight advantage as the host.
Derby County vs Wrexham: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Derby County play Wrexham in Championship (England). The match date is 4 January 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Derby County: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Wrexham: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Derby County scores 1.46 and concedes 1.28 goals per match. Wrexham scores 1.50 and concedes 1.41. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Derby County 65%, Wrexham 65%. Over 2.5: Derby County 52%, Wrexham 50%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Wrexham has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.25. Derby County: 11.0 shots per match, Wrexham: 11.3.
Match halves
Derby County: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.76. Wrexham: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.80.
Goals by minute
Derby County: 31-45+ (15 goals). Wrexham: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams. Derby County presents solid home form with 31% wins and an average of 1.23 goals per match, yet their last five home fixtures show instability (ldlddwwwllddw). In away matches, Wrexham is characterized by a high percentage of draws (42%) and better shooting efficiency (14% shot conversion versus 11% for Derby). The visitors' recent form is impressive with three victories in five matches and 2.0 PPG. A key factor is that Wrexham possesses a zero goal difference on the road and 33% clean sheets, suggesting a solid defense. Given the balanced xG statistics for both teams and Wrexham's tendency to draw away, the most likely outcome is a share of the points, although Derby holds a slight advantage as the host.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Derby County | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wrexham is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Derby County · 1.4 pts / match - Wrexham
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Derby County is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.28 goals / match - Derby County · 1.41 goals / match - Wrexham
Derby County scores in 91% of matches (42 of 46 matches), while Wrexham keeps a clean sheet in 26% (12 of 46 matches).
Wrexham scores in 87% of matches (40 of 46 matches), while Derby County keeps a clean sheet in 26% (12 of 46 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Derby County
Over / Under — Wrexham
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Derby County is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.52 pts / match - Derby County · 1.39 pts / match - Wrexham
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Derby County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Wrexham - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Derby County
Wrexham
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Derby County | Liga | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.74 | 2.59 | ▲ 2.91 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 57% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 50% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | • 26% | 25% | • 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 71% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | • 76% | 76% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Derby County 0 - 1 - 0 Wrexham. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Derby County vs Wrexham?
The Championship match finished Derby County 1:2 Wrexham. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Derby County vs Wrexham?
Derby County score 1.46 goals per game on average and Wrexham 1.50. The Championship average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Derby County's matches and 65% of Wrexham's.
What form are Derby County and Wrexham in?
Over the last 5 games Derby County have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Wrexham 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Derby County vs Wrexham?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.